reports/report.ipynb

   1 {
   2  "cells": [
   3   {
   4    "cell_type": "markdown",
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   7     "editable": true
   8    },
   9    "source": [
  10     "\n",
  11     "\n",
  12     "<h2>Introduction</h2>\n",
  13     "\n",
  14     "J'ai fait quelques essais dans différentes configurations pour la méthode \"Neighbors\"\n",
  15     "(la seule dont on a parlé).<br>Il semble que le mieux soit\n",
  16     "\n",
  17     " * simtype=\"exo\" ou \"mix\" : similarités exogènes avec/sans endogènes (fenêtre optimisée par VC)\n",
  18     " * same_season=FALSE : les indices pour la validation croisée ne tiennent pas compte des saisons\n",
  19     " * mix_strategy=\"mult\" : on multiplie les poids (au lieu d'en éteindre)\n",
  20     "\n",
  21     "J'ai systématiquement comparé à une approche naïve : la moyennes des lendemains des jours\n",
  22     "\"similaires\" dans tout le passé ; à chaque fois sans prédiction du saut (sauf pour Neighbors :\n",
  23     "prédiction basée sur les poids calculés).\n",
  24     "\n",
  25     "Ensuite j'affiche les erreurs, quelques courbes prévues/mesurées, quelques filaments puis les\n",
  26     "histogrammes de quelques poids. Concernant les graphes de filaments, la moitié gauche du graphe\n",
  27     "correspond aux jours similaires au jour courant, tandis que la moitié droite affiche les\n",
  28     "lendemains : ce sont donc les voisinages tels qu'utilisés dans l'algorithme.\n",
  29     "\n"
  30    ]
  31   },
  32   {
  33    "cell_type": "code",
  34    "execution_count": null,
  35    "metadata": {
  36     "collapsed": false,
  37     "deletable": true,
  38     "editable": true
  39    },
  40    "outputs": [],
  41    "source": [
  42     "library(talweg)\n",
  43     "\n",
  44     "ts_data = read.csv(system.file(\"extdata\",\"pm10_mesures_H_loc_report.csv\",package=\"talweg\"))\n",
  45     "exo_data = read.csv(system.file(\"extdata\",\"meteo_extra_noNAs.csv\",package=\"talweg\"))\n",
  46     "# Predict from P+1 to P+H included\n",
  47     "H = 17\n",
  48     "data = getData(ts_data, exo_data, input_tz = \"GMT\", working_tz=\"GMT\", predict_at=7)\n",
  49     "\n",
  50     "indices_ch = seq(as.Date(\"2015-01-18\"),as.Date(\"2015-01-24\"),\"days\")\n",
  51     "indices_ep = seq(as.Date(\"2015-03-15\"),as.Date(\"2015-03-21\"),\"days\")\n",
  52     "indices_np = seq(as.Date(\"2015-04-26\"),as.Date(\"2015-05-02\"),\"days\")"
  53    ]
  54   },
  55   {
  56    "cell_type": "markdown",
  57    "metadata": {
  58     "deletable": true,
  59     "editable": true
  60    },
  61    "source": [
  62     "\n",
  63     "\n",
  64     "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Pollution par chauffage</h2>"
  65    ]
  66   },
  67   {
  68    "cell_type": "code",
  69    "execution_count": null,
  70    "metadata": {
  71     "collapsed": false,
  72     "deletable": true,
  73     "editable": true
  74    },
  75    "outputs": [],
  76    "source": [
  77     "reload(\"../pkg\")\n",
  78     "p1 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
  79     "p2 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"endo\")\n",
  80     "p3 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"mix\")\n",
  81     "p4 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
  82     "p5 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"endo\")\n",
  83     "p6 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"mix\")\n"
  84    ]
  85   },
  86   {
  87    "cell_type": "code",
  88    "execution_count": null,
  89    "metadata": {
  90     "collapsed": false
  91    },
  92    "outputs": [],
  93    "source": [
  94     "e1 = computeError(data, p1, H)\n",
  95     "e2 = computeError(data, p2, H)\n",
  96     "e3 = computeError(data, p3, H)\n",
  97     "e4 = computeError(data, p4, H)\n",
  98     "e5 = computeError(data, p5, H)\n",
  99     "e6 = computeError(data, p6, H)\n",
 100     "plotError(list(e1,e2,e3,e4,e5,e6), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4,5,6))"
 101    ]
 102   },
 103   {
 104    "cell_type": "code",
 105    "execution_count": null,
 106    "metadata": {
 107     "collapsed": false,
 108     "deletable": true,
 109     "editable": true
 110    },
 111    "outputs": [],
 112    "source": [
 113     "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n",
 114     "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n",
 115     "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n",
 116     "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n",
 117     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n",
 118     "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n",
 119     "\n",
 120     "# Noir: neighbors_mix, bleu: neighbors_exo, vert: moyenne, rouge: persistence\n",
 121     "\n",
 122     "i_np = which.min(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)\n",
 123     "i_p = which.max(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)"
 124    ]
 125   },
 126   {
 127    "cell_type": "code",
 128    "execution_count": null,
 129    "metadata": {
 130     "collapsed": false,
 131     "deletable": true,
 132     "editable": true
 133    },
 134    "outputs": [],
 135    "source": [
 136     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n",
 137     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 138     "\n",
 139     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 140     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 141     "\n",
 142     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 143     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 144     "\n",
 145     "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n",
 146     "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n",
 147     "\n",
 148     "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée"
 149    ]
 150   },
 151   {
 152    "cell_type": "code",
 153    "execution_count": null,
 154    "metadata": {
 155     "collapsed": false,
 156     "deletable": true,
 157     "editable": true
 158    },
 159    "outputs": [],
 160    "source": [
 161     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 162     "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 163     "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 164     "\n",
 165     "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 166     "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))"
 167    ]
 168   },
 169   {
 170    "cell_type": "code",
 171    "execution_count": null,
 172    "metadata": {
 173     "collapsed": false,
 174     "deletable": true,
 175     "editable": true
 176    },
 177    "outputs": [],
 178    "source": [
 179     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 180     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 181     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 182     "\n",
 183     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 184     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))"
 185    ]
 186   },
 187   {
 188    "cell_type": "code",
 189    "execution_count": null,
 190    "metadata": {
 191     "collapsed": false,
 192     "deletable": true,
 193     "editable": true
 194    },
 195    "outputs": [],
 196    "source": [
 197     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 198     "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 199     "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 200     "\n",
 201     "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 202     "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 203     "\n",
 204     "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir"
 205    ]
 206   },
 207   {
 208    "cell_type": "code",
 209    "execution_count": null,
 210    "metadata": {
 211     "collapsed": false,
 212     "deletable": true,
 213     "editable": true
 214    },
 215    "outputs": [],
 216    "source": [
 217     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 218     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 219     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 220     "\n",
 221     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 222     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 223     "\n",
 224     "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite"
 225    ]
 226   },
 227   {
 228    "cell_type": "code",
 229    "execution_count": null,
 230    "metadata": {
 231     "collapsed": false,
 232     "deletable": true,
 233     "editable": true
 234    },
 235    "outputs": [],
 236    "source": [
 237     "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n",
 238     "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n",
 239     "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n",
 240     "\n",
 241     "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n",
 242     "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window"
 243    ]
 244   },
 245   {
 246    "cell_type": "markdown",
 247    "metadata": {
 248     "deletable": true,
 249     "editable": true
 250    },
 251    "source": [
 252     "\n",
 253     "\n",
 254     "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Pollution par épandage</h2>"
 255    ]
 256   },
 257   {
 258    "cell_type": "code",
 259    "execution_count": null,
 260    "metadata": {
 261     "collapsed": false,
 262     "deletable": true,
 263     "editable": true
 264    },
 265    "outputs": [],
 266    "source": [
 267     "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
 268     "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
 269     "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
 270     "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n",
 271     "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n",
 272     "\thorizon=3)\n",
 273     "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n",
 274     "\thorizon=3, same_day=TRUE)"
 275    ]
 276   },
 277   {
 278    "cell_type": "code",
 279    "execution_count": null,
 280    "metadata": {
 281     "collapsed": false,
 282     "deletable": true,
 283     "editable": true
 284    },
 285    "outputs": [],
 286    "source": [
 287     "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n",
 288     "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n",
 289     "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n",
 290     "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n",
 291     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n",
 292     "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n",
 293     "\n",
 294     "# Noir: neighbors_mix, bleu: neighbors_exo, vert: moyenne, rouge: persistence\n",
 295     "\n",
 296     "i_np = which.min(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)\n",
 297     "i_p = which.max(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)"
 298    ]
 299   },
 300   {
 301    "cell_type": "code",
 302    "execution_count": null,
 303    "metadata": {
 304     "collapsed": false,
 305     "deletable": true,
 306     "editable": true
 307    },
 308    "outputs": [],
 309    "source": [
 310     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n",
 311     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 312     "\n",
 313     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 314     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 315     "\n",
 316     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 317     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 318     "\n",
 319     "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n",
 320     "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n",
 321     "\n",
 322     "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée"
 323    ]
 324   },
 325   {
 326    "cell_type": "code",
 327    "execution_count": null,
 328    "metadata": {
 329     "collapsed": false,
 330     "deletable": true,
 331     "editable": true
 332    },
 333    "outputs": [],
 334    "source": [
 335     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 336     "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 337     "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 338     "\n",
 339     "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 340     "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))"
 341    ]
 342   },
 343   {
 344    "cell_type": "code",
 345    "execution_count": null,
 346    "metadata": {
 347     "collapsed": false,
 348     "deletable": true,
 349     "editable": true
 350    },
 351    "outputs": [],
 352    "source": [
 353     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 354     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 355     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 356     "\n",
 357     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 358     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))"
 359    ]
 360   },
 361   {
 362    "cell_type": "code",
 363    "execution_count": null,
 364    "metadata": {
 365     "collapsed": false,
 366     "deletable": true,
 367     "editable": true
 368    },
 369    "outputs": [],
 370    "source": [
 371     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 372     "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 373     "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 374     "\n",
 375     "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 376     "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 377     "\n",
 378     "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir"
 379    ]
 380   },
 381   {
 382    "cell_type": "code",
 383    "execution_count": null,
 384    "metadata": {
 385     "collapsed": false,
 386     "deletable": true,
 387     "editable": true
 388    },
 389    "outputs": [],
 390    "source": [
 391     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 392     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 393     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 394     "\n",
 395     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 396     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 397     "\n",
 398     "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite"
 399    ]
 400   },
 401   {
 402    "cell_type": "code",
 403    "execution_count": null,
 404    "metadata": {
 405     "collapsed": false,
 406     "deletable": true,
 407     "editable": true
 408    },
 409    "outputs": [],
 410    "source": [
 411     "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n",
 412     "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n",
 413     "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n",
 414     "\n",
 415     "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n",
 416     "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window"
 417    ]
 418   },
 419   {
 420    "cell_type": "markdown",
 421    "metadata": {
 422     "deletable": true,
 423     "editable": true
 424    },
 425    "source": [
 426     "\n",
 427     "\n",
 428     "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Semaine non polluée</h2>"
 429    ]
 430   },
 431   {
 432    "cell_type": "code",
 433    "execution_count": null,
 434    "metadata": {
 435     "collapsed": false,
 436     "deletable": true,
 437     "editable": true
 438    },
 439    "outputs": [],
 440    "source": [
 441     "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
 442     "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
 443     "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
 444     "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n",
 445     "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n",
 446     "\thorizon=3)\n",
 447     "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n",
 448     "\thorizon=3, same_day=FALSE)"
 449    ]
 450   },
 451   {
 452    "cell_type": "code",
 453    "execution_count": null,
 454    "metadata": {
 455     "collapsed": false,
 456     "deletable": true,
 457     "editable": true
 458    },
 459    "outputs": [],
 460    "source": [
 461     "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n",
 462     "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n",
 463     "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n",
 464     "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n",
 465     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n",
 466     "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n",
 467     "\n",
 468     "# Noir: neighbors_mix, bleu: neighbors_exo, vert: moyenne, rouge: persistence\n",
 469     "\n",
 470     "i_np = which.min(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)\n",
 471     "i_p = which.max(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)"
 472    ]
 473   },
 474   {
 475    "cell_type": "code",
 476    "execution_count": null,
 477    "metadata": {
 478     "collapsed": false,
 479     "deletable": true,
 480     "editable": true
 481    },
 482    "outputs": [],
 483    "source": [
 484     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n",
 485     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 486     "\n",
 487     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 488     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 489     "\n",
 490     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 491     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 492     "\n",
 493     "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n",
 494     "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n",
 495     "\n",
 496     "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée"
 497    ]
 498   },
 499   {
 500    "cell_type": "code",
 501    "execution_count": null,
 502    "metadata": {
 503     "collapsed": false,
 504     "deletable": true,
 505     "editable": true
 506    },
 507    "outputs": [],
 508    "source": [
 509     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 510     "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 511     "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 512     "\n",
 513     "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 514     "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))"
 515    ]
 516   },
 517   {
 518    "cell_type": "code",
 519    "execution_count": null,
 520    "metadata": {
 521     "collapsed": false,
 522     "deletable": true,
 523     "editable": true
 524    },
 525    "outputs": [],
 526    "source": [
 527     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 528     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 529     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 530     "\n",
 531     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 532     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))"
 533    ]
 534   },
 535   {
 536    "cell_type": "code",
 537    "execution_count": null,
 538    "metadata": {
 539     "collapsed": false,
 540     "deletable": true,
 541     "editable": true
 542    },
 543    "outputs": [],
 544    "source": [
 545     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 546     "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 547     "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 548     "\n",
 549     "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 550     "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 551     "\n",
 552     "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir"
 553    ]
 554   },
 555   {
 556    "cell_type": "code",
 557    "execution_count": null,
 558    "metadata": {
 559     "collapsed": false,
 560     "deletable": true,
 561     "editable": true
 562    },
 563    "outputs": [],
 564    "source": [
 565     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 566     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 567     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 568     "\n",
 569     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 570     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 571     "\n",
 572     "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite"
 573    ]
 574   },
 575   {
 576    "cell_type": "code",
 577    "execution_count": null,
 578    "metadata": {
 579     "collapsed": false,
 580     "deletable": true,
 581     "editable": true
 582    },
 583    "outputs": [],
 584    "source": [
 585     "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n",
 586     "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n",
 587     "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n",
 588     "\n",
 589     "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n",
 590     "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window"
 591    ]
 592   },
 593   {
 594    "cell_type": "markdown",
 595    "metadata": {
 596     "deletable": true,
 597     "editable": true
 598    },
 599    "source": [
 600     "\n",
 601     "\n",
 602     "<h2>Bilan</h2>\n",
 603     "\n",
 604     "Problème difficile : on ne fait guère mieux qu'une naïve moyenne des lendemains des jours\n",
 605     "similaires dans le passé, ce qui n'est pas loin de prédire une série constante égale à la\n",
 606     "dernière valeur observée (méthode \"zéro\"). La persistence donne parfois de bons résultats\n",
 607     "mais est trop instable (sensibilité à l'argument <code>same_day</code>).\n",
 608     "\n",
 609     "Comment améliorer la méthode ?"
 610    ]
 611   }
 612  ],
 613  "metadata": {
 614   "kernelspec": {
 615    "display_name": "R",
 616    "language": "R",
 617    "name": "ir"
 618   },
 619   "language_info": {
 620    "codemirror_mode": "r",
 621    "file_extension": ".r",
 622    "mimetype": "text/x-r-source",
 623    "name": "R",
 624    "pygments_lexer": "r",
 625    "version": "3.3.3"
 626   }
 627  },
 628  "nbformat": 4,
 629  "nbformat_minor": 2
 630 }