first tests for Neighbors2 after debug; TODO: some missing forecasts

[talweg.git] / reports / report.ipynb

diff --git a/reports/report.ipynb b/reports/report.ipynb
index 05f51de..899fbf6 100644 (file)
--- a/reports/report.ipynb
+++ b/reports/report.ipynb
@@ -2,7 +2,10 @@
  "cells": [
   {
    "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
+   "metadata": {
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
    "source": [
     "\n",
     "\n",
@@ -30,7 +33,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -38,7 +43,9 @@
     "\n",
     "ts_data = read.csv(system.file(\"extdata\",\"pm10_mesures_H_loc_report.csv\",package=\"talweg\"))\n",
     "exo_data = read.csv(system.file(\"extdata\",\"meteo_extra_noNAs.csv\",package=\"talweg\"))\n",
-    "data = getData(ts_data, exo_data, input_tz = \"Europe/Paris\", working_tz=\"Europe/Paris\", predict_at=13)\n",
+    "# Predict from P+1 to P+H included\n",
+    "H = 17\n",
+    "data = getData(ts_data, exo_data, input_tz = \"GMT\", working_tz=\"GMT\", predict_at=7)\n",
     "\n",
     "indices_ch = seq(as.Date(\"2015-01-18\"),as.Date(\"2015-01-24\"),\"days\")\n",
     "indices_ep = seq(as.Date(\"2015-03-15\"),as.Date(\"2015-03-21\"),\"days\")\n",
@@ -47,7 +54,10 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
+   "metadata": {
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
    "source": [
     "\n",
     "\n",
@@ -58,14 +68,19 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\", simtype=\"exo\", horizon=H)\n",
-    "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\", simtype=\"mix\", horizon=H)\n",
-    "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Average\", \"Zero\", horizon=H) #, memory=183)\n",
-    "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, same_day=TRUE)"
+    "reload(\"../pkg\")\n",
+    "p1 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
+    "p2 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"endo\")\n",
+    "p3 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"mix\")\n",
+    "p4 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
+    "p5 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"endo\")\n",
+    "p6 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"mix\")\n"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -76,10 +91,29 @@
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo)\n",
-    "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix)\n",
-    "e_az = computeError(data, p_az)\n",
-    "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz)\n",
+    "e1 = computeError(data, p1, H)\n",
+    "e2 = computeError(data, p2, H)\n",
+    "e3 = computeError(data, p3, H)\n",
+    "e4 = computeError(data, p4, H)\n",
+    "e5 = computeError(data, p5, H)\n",
+    "e6 = computeError(data, p6, H)\n",
+    "plotError(list(e1,e2,e3,e4,e5,e6), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4,5,6))"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n",
+    "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n",
+    "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n",
+    "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n",
     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n",
     "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n",
     "\n",
@@ -93,7 +127,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -116,7 +152,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -132,7 +170,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -148,7 +188,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -166,7 +208,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -175,7 +219,7 @@
     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
     "\n",
     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
-    "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p)\n",
+    "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
     "\n",
     "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite"
    ]
@@ -184,7 +228,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -198,7 +244,10 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
+   "metadata": {
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
    "source": [
     "\n",
     "\n",
@@ -209,28 +258,36 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\", simtype=\"exo\", horizon=H)\n",
-    "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\", simtype=\"mix\", horizon=H)\n",
-    "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Average\", \"Zero\", horizon=H) #, memory=183)\n",
-    "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, same_day=TRUE)"
+    "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
+    "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n",
+    "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3)\n",
+    "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3, same_day=TRUE)"
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo)\n",
-    "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix)\n",
-    "e_az = computeError(data, p_az)\n",
-    "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz)\n",
+    "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n",
+    "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n",
+    "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n",
+    "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n",
     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n",
     "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n",
     "\n",
@@ -244,7 +301,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -267,7 +326,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -283,7 +344,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -299,7 +362,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -317,7 +382,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -326,7 +393,7 @@
     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
     "\n",
     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
-    "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p)\n",
+    "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
     "\n",
     "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite"
    ]
@@ -335,7 +402,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -349,7 +418,10 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
+   "metadata": {
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
    "source": [
     "\n",
     "\n",
@@ -360,28 +432,36 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\", simtype=\"exo\", horizon=H)\n",
-    "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\", simtype=\"mix\", horizon=H)\n",
-    "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Average\", \"Zero\", horizon=H) #, memory=183)\n",
-    "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, same_day=TRUE)"
+    "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
+    "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n",
+    "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3)\n",
+    "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3, same_day=FALSE)"
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo)\n",
-    "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix)\n",
-    "e_az = computeError(data, p_az)\n",
-    "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz)\n",
+    "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n",
+    "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n",
+    "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n",
+    "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n",
     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n",
     "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n",
     "\n",
@@ -395,7 +475,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -418,7 +500,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -434,7 +518,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -450,7 +536,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -468,7 +556,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -477,7 +567,7 @@
     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
     "\n",
     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
-    "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p)\n",
+    "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
     "\n",
     "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite"
    ]
@@ -486,7 +576,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -500,7 +592,10 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
+   "metadata": {
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
    "source": [
     "\n",
     "\n",