'update'

[talweg.git] / reports / rapport_final / report_P7_H17.tex

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		\subsection*{Introduction}

Cette partie montre les résultats obtenus via des variantes de
l'algorithme décrit à la section 2, en utilisant le package présenté à
la section 3. Cet algorithme est systématiquement comparé à deux
approches naïves : * la moyenne des lendemains des jours "similaires"
dans tout le passé, c'est-à-dire prédiction = moyenne de tous les mardis
passé si le jour courant est un lndi par exemple. * la persistence,
reproduisant le jour courant ou allant chercher le lendemain de la
dernière journée "similaire" (même principe que ci-dessus ; argument
"same\_day").

Concernant l'algorithme principal à voisins, trois variantes sont
étudiées dans cette partie : * avec simtype="mix" et raccordement
"Neighbors" dans le cas "non local", i.e. on va chercher des voisins
n'importe où du moment qu'ils correspondent au premier élément d'un
couple de deux jours consécutifs sans valeurs manquantes. * avec
simtype="endo" + raccordement "Neighbors" puis simtype="none" +
raccordement "Zero" (sans ajustement) dans le cas "local" : voisins de
même niveau de pollution et même saison.

Pour chaque période retenue -\/- chauffage, épandage, semaine non
polluée -\/- les erreurs de prédiction sont d'abord affichées, puis
quelques graphes de courbes réalisées/prévues (sur le jour "en moyenne
le plus facile" à gauche, et "en moyenne le plus difficile" à droite).
Ensuite plusieurs types de graphes apportant des précisions sur la
nature et la difficulté du problème viennent compléter ces premières
courbes. Concernant les graphes de filaments, la moitié gauche du graphe
correspond aux jours similaires au jour courant, tandis que la moitié
droite affiche les lendemains : ce sont donc les voisinages tels
qu'utilisés dans l'algorithme.

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
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        \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} Prediction from P+1 to P+H included.}
        \PY{n}{data} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{getData}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{ts\PYZus{}data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{exo\PYZus{}data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{input\PYZus{}tz} \PY{o}{=} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{GMT}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{working\PYZus{}tz}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{GMT}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{predict\PYZus{}at}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{P}\PY{p}{)}
        
        \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}ch} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{seq}\PY{p}{(}\PY{k}{as}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{Date}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{2015\PYZhy{}01\PYZhy{}18}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{,}\PY{k}{as}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{Date}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{2015\PYZhy{}01\PYZhy{}24}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{days}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}ep} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{seq}\PY{p}{(}\PY{k}{as}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{Date}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{2015\PYZhy{}03\PYZhy{}15}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{,}\PY{k}{as}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{Date}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{2015\PYZhy{}03\PYZhy{}21}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{days}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}np} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{seq}\PY{p}{(}\PY{k}{as}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{Date}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{2015\PYZhy{}04\PYZhy{}26}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{,}\PY{k}{as}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{Date}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{2015\PYZhy{}05\PYZhy{}02}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{days}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{)}
\end{Verbatim}

		\subsection*{Pollution par chauffage}

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}2}]:} \PY{n}{p1} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}ch}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{,}
        	\PY{n}{simtype}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{mix}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{local}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{FALSE}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{p2} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}ch}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{,}
        	\PY{n}{simtype}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{endo}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{local}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{p3} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}ch}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Zero}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{,}
        	\PY{n}{simtype}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{none}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{local}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{p4} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}ch}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Average}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Zero}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{p5} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}ch}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Persistence}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Zero}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{,}
        	\PY{n}{same\PYZus{}day}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}3}]:} \PY{n}{e1} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{e2} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{e3} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p3}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{e4} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p4}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{e5} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p5}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{options}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n+nb}{repr}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{width}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+m+mi}{9}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n+nb}{repr}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{height}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+m+mi}{7}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{plotError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n+nb}{list}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{e1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{e5}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{e4}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{e2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{e3}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{cols}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{colors}\PY{p}{(}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{[}\PY{l+m+mi}{258}\PY{p}{]}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{4}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{6}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        
        \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} noir: Neighbors non\PYZhy{}local (p1), bleu: Neighbors local endo (p2),}
        \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} mauve: Neighbors local none (p3), vert: moyenne (p4),}
        \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} rouge: persistence (p5)}
        
        \PY{n}{sum\PYZus{}p123} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{e1}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n+nb}{abs}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{indices} \PY{o}{+} \PY{n}{e2}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n+nb}{abs}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{indices} \PY{o}{+} \PY{n}{e3}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n+nb}{abs}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{indices}
        \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{which}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{min}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{sum\PYZus{}p123}\PY{p}{)} \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{}indice de (veille de) jour \PYZdq{}facile\PYZdq{}}
        \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{which}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{max}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{sum\PYZus{}p123}\PY{p}{)} \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{}indice de (veille de) jour \PYZdq{}difficile\PYZdq{}}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_4_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    L'erreur absolue dépasse 20 sur 1 à 2 jours suivant les modèles (graphe
en haut à droite). C'est au-delà de ce que l'on aimerait voir (disons
+/- 5 environ). Sur cet exemple le modèle à voisins "contraint"
(local=TRUE) utilisant des pondérations basées sur les similarités de
forme (simtype="endo") obtient en moyenne les meilleurs résultats, avec
un MAPE restant en général inférieur à 30\% de 8h à 19h (7+1 à 7+12 :
graphe en bas à gauche).

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}4}]:} \PY{n}{options}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n+nb}{repr}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{width}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+m+mi}{9}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n+nb}{repr}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{height}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+m+mi}{4}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        
        \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        
        \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        
        \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p3}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p3 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p3}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p3 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        
        \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_6_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_6_1.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_6_2.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    Le jour "facile à prévoir", à gauche, se décompose en deux modes : un
léger vers 10h (7+3), puis un beaucoup plus marqué vers 19h (7+12). Ces
deux modes sont retrouvés par les trois variantes de l'algorithme à
voisins, bien que l'amplitude soit mal prédite. Concernant le jour
"difficile à prévoir" il y a deux pics en tout début et toute fin de
journée (à 9h et 23h), qui ne sont pas du tout anticipés par le
programme ; la grande amplitude de ces pics explique alors l'intensité
de l'erreur observée.

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}5}]:} \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np1} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeFilaments}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
            \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Filaments p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p1} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeFilaments}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
            \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Filaments p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        
        \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np2} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeFilaments}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
            \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Filaments p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p2} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeFilaments}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
            \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Filaments p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_8_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_8_1.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    Les voisins du jour courant (période de 24h allant de 8h à 7h le
lendemain) sont affichés avec un trait d'autant plus sombre qu'ils sont
proches. On constate dans le cas non contraint (en haut) une grande
variabilité des lendemains, très nette sur le graphe en haut à droite.
Ceci indique une faible corrélation entre la forme d'une courbe sur une
période de 24h et la forme sur les 24h suivantes ; \textbf{cette
observation est la source des difficultés rencontrées par l'algorithme
sur ce jeu de données.}

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}6}]:} \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{plotFilamentsBox}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np1}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{FilBox p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{plotFilamentsBox}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p1}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{FilBox p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        
        \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} En pointillés la courbe du jour courant + lendemain (à prédire)}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_10_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    Sur cette boxplot fonctionnelle (voir la fonction fboxplot() du package
R "rainbow") l'on constate essentiellement deux choses : le lendemain
d'un voisin "normal" peut se révéler être une courbe atypique, fort
éloignée de ce que l'on souhaite prédire (courbes bleue et rouge à
gauche) ; et, dans le cas d'une courbe à prédire atypique (à droite) la
plupart des voisins sont trop éloignés de la forme à prédire et forcent
ainsi un aplatissement de la prédiction.

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}7}]:} \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{plotRelVar}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np1}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{StdDev p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{plotRelVar}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p1}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{StdDev p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        
        \PY{n}{plotRelVar}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{StdDev p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{plotRelVar}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{StdDev p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        
        \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_12_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_12_1.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    Ces graphes viennent confirmer l'impression visuelle après observation
des filaments. En effet, la variabilité globale en rouge (écart-type
heure par heure sur l'ensemble des couples "aujourd'hui/lendemain" du
passé) devrait rester nettement au-dessus de la variabilité locale,
calculée respectivement sur un voisinage d'une soixantaine de jours
(pour p1) et d'une dizaine de jours (pour p2). Or on constate que ce
n'est pas du tout le cas sur la période "lendemain", sauf en partie pour
p2 le jour 4 \(-\) mais ce n'est pas suffisant.

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}8}]:} \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{plotSimils}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Weights p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{plotSimils}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Weights p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        
        \PY{n}{plotSimils}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Weights p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        \PY{n}{plotSimils}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Weights p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
        
        \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} \PYZhy{} pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_14_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_14_1.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    Les poids se concentrent près de 0 dans le cas "non local" (p1), et se
répartissent assez uniformément dans \([0,0.2]\) dans le cas "local"
(p2). C'est ce que l'on souhaite observer pour éviter d'effectuer une
simple moyenne.

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}9}]:} \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,7] / non\PYZhy{}loc 2 premières lignes, loc ensuite}
        \PY{n}{p1}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{getParams}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{window}
        \PY{n}{p1}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{getParams}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{window}
        
        \PY{n}{p2}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{getParams}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{window}
        \PY{n}{p2}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{getParams}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{window}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{enumerate*}
\item 0.168824188864717
\item 0.336969608767438
\end{enumerate*}

    
    \begin{enumerate*}
\item 0.18004595760919
\item 0.353963007643311
\end{enumerate*}

    
    1.16620655388085

    
    1.18148881881259

    
		\subsection*{Pollution par épandage}

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}10}]:} \PY{n}{p1} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}ep}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{,}
         	\PY{n}{simtype}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{mix}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{local}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{FALSE}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{p2} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}ep}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{,}
         	\PY{n}{simtype}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{endo}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{local}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{p3} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}ep}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Zero}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{,}
         	\PY{n}{simtype}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{none}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{local}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{p4} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}ep}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Average}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Zero}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{p5} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}ep}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Persistence}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Zero}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{,}
         	\PY{n}{same\PYZus{}day}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}11}]:} \PY{n}{e1} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{e2} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{e3} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p3}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{e4} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p4}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{e5} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p5}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{options}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n+nb}{repr}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{width}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+m+mi}{9}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n+nb}{repr}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{height}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+m+mi}{7}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n+nb}{list}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{e1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{e5}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{e4}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{e2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{e3}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{cols}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{colors}\PY{p}{(}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{[}\PY{l+m+mi}{258}\PY{p}{]}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{4}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{6}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} noir: Neighbors non\PYZhy{}local (p1), bleu: Neighbors local endo (p2),}
         \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} mauve: Neighbors local none (p3), vert: moyenne (p4),}
         \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} rouge: persistence (p5)}
         
         \PY{n}{sum\PYZus{}p123} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{e1}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n+nb}{abs}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{indices} \PY{o}{+} \PY{n}{e2}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n+nb}{abs}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{indices} \PY{o}{+} \PY{n}{e3}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n+nb}{abs}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{indices}
         \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{which}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{min}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{sum\PYZus{}p123}\PY{p}{)} \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{}indice de (veille de) jour \PYZdq{}facile\PYZdq{}}
         \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{which}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{max}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{sum\PYZus{}p123}\PY{p}{)} \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{}indice de (veille de) jour \PYZdq{}difficile\PYZdq{}}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_19_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    Il est difficile dans ce cas de déterminer une méthode meilleure que les
autres : elles donnent toutes de plutôt mauvais résultats, avec une
erreur absolue moyennée sur la journée dépassant presque toujours 15
(graphe en haut à droite).

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}12}]:} \PY{n}{options}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n+nb}{repr}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{width}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+m+mi}{9}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n+nb}{repr}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{height}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+m+mi}{4}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p3}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p3 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p3}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p3 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_21_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_21_1.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_21_2.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    Dans le cas d'un jour "facile" à prédire \(-\) à gauche \(-\) la forme
est plus ou moins retrouvée, mais le niveau moyen est trop bas (courbe
en bleu). Concernant le jour "difficile" à droite, non seulement la
forme n'est pas anticipée mais surtout le niveau prédit est très
inférieur au niveau de pollution observé. Comme on le voit ci-dessous
cela découle d'un manque de voisins au comportement similaire.

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}13}]:} \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np1} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeFilaments}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
             \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Filaments p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p1} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeFilaments}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
             \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Filaments p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np2} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeFilaments}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
             \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Filaments p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p2} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeFilaments}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
             \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Filaments p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_23_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_23_1.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    Les observations sont les mêmes qu'au paragraphe précédent : trop de
variabilité des lendemains (et même des voisins du jour courant).

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}14}]:} \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotFilamentsBox}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np1}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{FilBox p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotFilamentsBox}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p1}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{FilBox p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} En pointillés la courbe du jour courant + lendemain (à prédire)}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_25_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    On constate la présence d'un voisin au lendemain complètement atypique
avec un pic en début de journée (courbe en vert à gauche), et d'un autre
phénomène semblable avec la courbe rouge sur le graphe de droite. Ajouté
au fait que le lendemain à prévoir est lui-même un jour "hors norme",
cela montre l'impossibilité de bien prévoir une courbe en utilisant
l'algorithme à voisins.

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}15}]:} \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotRelVar}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np1}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{StdDev p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotRelVar}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p1}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{StdDev p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{n}{plotRelVar}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{StdDev p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotRelVar}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{StdDev p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_27_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_27_1.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    Comme précédemment les variabilités locales et globales sont confondues
dans les parties droites des graphes \(-\) sauf pour la version "locale"
sur le jour "facile" ; mais cette bonne propriété n'est pas suffisante
si l'on ne trouve pas les bons poids à appliquer.

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}16}]:} \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotSimils}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Weights p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotSimils}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Weights p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{n}{plotSimils}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Weights p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotSimils}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Weights p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} \PYZhy{} pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_29_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_29_1.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    En comparaison avec le pragraphe précédent on retrouve le même (bon)
comportement des poids pour la version "non locale". En revanche la
fenêtre optimisée est trop grande sur le jour "facile" pour la méthode
"locale" (voir affichage ci-dessous) : il en résulte des poids tous
semblables autour de 0.084, l'algorithme effectue donc une moyenne
simple \(-\) expliquant pourquoi les courbes mauve et bleue sont très
proches sur le graphe d'erreurs.

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}17}]:} \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,7] / non\PYZhy{}loc 2 premières lignes, loc ensuite}
         \PY{n}{p1}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{getParams}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{window}
         \PY{n}{p1}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{getParams}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{window}
         
         \PY{n}{p2}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{getParams}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{window}
         \PY{n}{p2}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{getParams}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{window}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{enumerate*}
\item 0.206604806619633
\item 0.661854053860987
\end{enumerate*}

    
    \begin{enumerate*}
\item 0.367945958636072
\item 0.244429852740092
\end{enumerate*}

    
    6.99993248587025

    
    1.24825506305085

    
		\subsection*{Semaine non polluée}

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}18}]:} \PY{n}{p1} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{,}
         	\PY{n}{simtype}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{mix}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{local}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{FALSE}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{p2} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{,}
         	\PY{n}{simtype}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{endo}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{local}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{p3} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Neighbors}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Zero}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{,}
         	\PY{n}{simtype}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{none}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{local}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{p4} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Average}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Zero}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{p5} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeForecast}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{indices\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Persistence}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Zero}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{horizon}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{,}
         	\PY{n}{same\PYZus{}day}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{FALSE}\PY{p}{)}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}19}]:} \PY{n}{e1} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{e2} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{e3} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p3}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{e4} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p4}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{e5} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p5}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{H}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{options}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n+nb}{repr}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{width}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+m+mi}{9}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n+nb}{repr}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{height}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+m+mi}{7}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotError}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n+nb}{list}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{e1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{e5}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{e4}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{e2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{e3}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{cols}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{colors}\PY{p}{(}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{[}\PY{l+m+mi}{258}\PY{p}{]}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{4}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{6}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} noir: Neighbors non\PYZhy{}local (p1), bleu: Neighbors local endo (p2),}
         \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} mauve: Neighbors local none (p3), vert: moyenne (p4),}
         \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} rouge: persistence (p5)}
         
         \PY{n}{sum\PYZus{}p123} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{e1}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n+nb}{abs}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{indices} \PY{o}{+} \PY{n}{e2}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n+nb}{abs}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{indices} \PY{o}{+} \PY{n}{e3}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n+nb}{abs}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{indices}
         \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{which}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{min}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{sum\PYZus{}p123}\PY{p}{)} \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{}indice de (veille de) jour \PYZdq{}facile\PYZdq{}}
         \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{which}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{max}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{sum\PYZus{}p123}\PY{p}{)} \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{}indice de (veille de) jour \PYZdq{}difficile\PYZdq{}}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_34_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    Dans ce cas plus favorable les intensité des erreurs absolues ont
clairement diminué : elles restent souvent en dessous de 5. En revanche
le MAPE moyen reste au-delà de 20\%, et même souvent plus de 30\%. Comme
dans le cas de l'épandage on constate une croissance globale de la
courbe journalière d'erreur absolue moyenne (en haut à gauche) ; ceci
peut être dû au fait que l'on ajuste le niveau du jour à prédire en le
recollant sur la dernière valeur observée.

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}20}]:} \PY{n}{options}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n+nb}{repr}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{width}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+m+mi}{9}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n+nb}{repr}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{.}\PY{n}{height}\PY{o}{=}\PY{l+m+mi}{4}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p3}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p3 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotPredReal}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p3}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{PredReal p3 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_36_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_36_1.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_36_2.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    La forme est raisonnablement retrouvée pour les méthodes "locales",
l'autre version lissant trop les prédictions. Le biais reste cependant
important, surtout en fin de journée sur le jour "difficile".

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}21}]:} \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np1} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeFilaments}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
             \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Filaments p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p1} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeFilaments}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
             \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Filaments p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np2} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeFilaments}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
             \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Filaments p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p2} \PY{o}{=} \PY{n}{computeFilaments}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{plot}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{TRUE}\PY{p}{)}
             \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Filaments p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_38_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_38_1.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    Les graphes de filaments ont encore la même allure, avec une assez
grande variabilité observée. Cette observation est cependant trompeuse,
comme l'indique plus bas le graphe de variabilité relative.

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}22}]:} \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotFilamentsBox}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np1}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{FilBox p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotFilamentsBox}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p1}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{FilBox p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} En pointillés la courbe du jour courant + lendemain (à prédire)}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_40_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    On peut réappliquer les mêmes remarques qu'auparavant sur les boxplots
fonctionnels : lendemains de voisins atypiques, courbe à prévoir
elle-même légèrement "hors norme".

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}23}]:} \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotRelVar}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np1}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{StdDev p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotRelVar}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p1}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{StdDev p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{n}{plotRelVar}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}np2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{StdDev p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotRelVar}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{data}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{f\PYZus{}p2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{StdDev p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_42_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_42_1.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    Cette fois la situation idéale est observée : la variabilité globale est
nettement au-dessus de la variabilité locale. Bien que cela ne suffise
pas à obtenir de bonnes prédictions de forme, on constate au moins
l'amélioration dans la prédiction du niveau.

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}24}]:} \PY{n}{par}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{mfrow}\PY{o}{=}\PY{n}{c}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+m+mi}{1}\PY{p}{,}\PY{l+m+mi}{2}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotSimils}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Weights p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotSimils}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{p1}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Weights p1 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{n}{plotSimils}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Weights p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         \PY{n}{plotSimils}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{p2}\PY{p}{,} \PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{;} \PY{n}{title}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{paste}\PY{p}{(}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{l+s+s2}{Weights p2 day}\PY{l+s+s2}{\PYZdq{}}\PY{p}{,}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{p}{)}
         
         \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} \PYZhy{} pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_44_0.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    \begin{center}
    \adjustimage{max size={0.9\linewidth}{0.9\paperheight}}{output_44_1.png}
    \end{center}
    { \hspace*{\fill} \\}
    
    Concernant les poids en revanche, deux cas a priori mauvais se cumulent
: * les poids dans le cas "non local" ne sont pas assez concentrés
autour de 0, menant à un lissage trop fort \(-\) comme observé sur les
graphes des courbes réalisées/prévues ; * les poids dans le cas "local"
sont trop semblables (à cause de la trop grande fenêtre optimisée par
validation croisée, cf. ci-dessous), résultant encore en une moyenne
simple \(-\) mais sur moins de jours, plus proches du jour courant.

    \begin{Verbatim}[commandchars=\\\{\}]
{\color{incolor}In [{\color{incolor}25}]:} \PY{c+c1}{\PYZsh{} Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,7] / non\PYZhy{}loc 2 premières lignes, loc ensuite}
         \PY{n}{p1}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{getParams}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{window}
         \PY{n}{p1}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{getParams}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{window}
         
         \PY{n}{p2}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{getParams}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}np}\PY{p}{)}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{window}
         \PY{n}{p2}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{getParams}\PY{p}{(}\PY{n}{i\PYZus{}p}\PY{p}{)}\PY{err}{\PYZdl{}}\PY{n}{window}
\end{Verbatim}

    \begin{enumerate*}
\item 0.205055690975915
\item 0.703482647754766
\end{enumerate*}

    
    \begin{enumerate*}
\item 1.1038650998802
\item 0.885155748316133
\end{enumerate*}

    
    3.64336124381868

    
    6.99994501761361

    
		\subsection*{Bilan}

Nos algorithmes à voisins ne sont pas adaptés à ce jeu de données où la
forme varie considérablement d'un jour à l'autre. Plus généralement
cette décorrélation de forme rend ardue la tâche de prévision pour toute
autre méthode \(-\) du moins, nous ne savons pas comment procéder pour
parvenir à une bonne précision.

Toutefois, un espoir reste permis par exemple en aggréger les courbes
spatialement (sur plusieurs stations situées dans la même agglomération
ou dans une même zone).


    % Add a bibliography block to the postdoc
    
    
    
    \end{document}