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[talweg.git] / pkg / R / F_Neighbors.R
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25b75559 1#' Neighbors Forecaster
3d69ff21 2#'
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3#' Predict next serie as a weighted combination of "futures of the past" days,
4#' where days in the past are chosen and weighted according to some similarity measures.
c4c329f6 5#'
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6#' The main method is \code{predictShape()}, taking arguments data, today, memory,
7#' horizon respectively for the dataset (object output of \code{getData()}), the current
8#' index, the data depth (in days) and the number of time steps to forecast.
9#' In addition, optional arguments can be passed:
10#' \itemize{
11#' \item local : TRUE (default) to constrain neighbors to be "same days within same
12#' season"
13#' \item simtype : 'endo' for a similarity based on the series only,<cr>
14#' 'exo' for a similaruty based on exogenous variables only,<cr>
15#' 'mix' for the product of 'endo' and 'exo',<cr>
16#' 'none' (default) to apply a simple average: no computed weights
17#' \item window : A window for similarities computations; override cross-validation
18#' window estimation.
19#' }
20#' The method is summarized as follows:
21#' \enumerate{
22#' \item Determine N (=20) recent days without missing values, and followed by a
23#' tomorrow also without missing values.
24#' \item Optimize the window parameters (if relevant) on the N chosen days.
25#' \item Considering the optimized window, compute the neighbors (with locality
26#' constraint or not), compute their similarities -- using a gaussian kernel if
27#' simtype != "none" -- and average accordingly the "tomorrows of neigbors" to
28#' obtain the final prediction.
29#' }
c4c329f6 30#'
102bcfda 31#' @docType class
c4c329f6 32#' @format R6 class, inherits Forecaster
3ddf1c12 33#' @aliases F_Neighbors
546b0cb6 34#'
25b75559 35NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster",
a66a84b5 36 inherit = Forecaster,
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37
38 public = list(
98e958ca 39 predictShape = function(data, today, memory, horizon, ...)
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40 {
41 # (re)initialize computed parameters
a66a84b5 42 private$.params <- list("weights"=NA, "indices"=NA, "window"=NA)
3d69ff21 43
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44 # Do not forecast on days with NAs (TODO: softer condition...)
45 if (any(is.na(data$getCenteredSerie(today))))
46 return (NA)
47
af3b84f4 48 # Determine indices of no-NAs days followed by no-NAs tomorrows
3ddf1c12 49 fdays = .getNoNA2(data, max(today-memory,1), today-1)
af3b84f4 50
f17665c7 51 # Get optional args
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52 local = ifelse(hasArg("local"), list(...)$local, TRUE) #same level + season?
53 simtype = ifelse(hasArg("simtype"), list(...)$simtype, "none") #or "endo", or "exo"
aa059de7 54 if (hasArg("window"))
a66a84b5 55 {
98e958ca 56 return ( private$.predictShapeAux(data,
aa059de7 57 fdays, today, horizon, local, list(...)$window, simtype, TRUE) )
a66a84b5 58 }
3d69ff21 59
6774e53d 60 # Indices of similar days for cross-validation; TODO: 20 = magic number
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61 cv_days = getSimilarDaysIndices(today, data, limit=20, same_season=FALSE,
62 days_in=fdays)
5e838b3e 63
445e7bbc 64 # Optimize h : h |--> sum of prediction errors on last N "similar" days
aa059de7 65 errorOnLastNdays = function(window, simtype)
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66 {
67 error = 0
68 nb_jours = 0
5e838b3e 69 for (i in seq_along(cv_days))
3d69ff21 70 {
f17665c7 71 # mix_strategy is never used here (simtype != "mix"), therefore left blank
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72 prediction = private$.predictShapeAux(data, fdays, cv_days[i], horizon, local,
73 window, simtype, FALSE)
f17665c7 74 if (!is.na(prediction[1]))
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75 {
76 nb_jours = nb_jours + 1
af3b84f4 77 error = error +
aa059de7 78 mean((data$getSerie(cv_days[i]+1)[1:horizon] - prediction)^2)
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79 }
80 }
81 return (error / nb_jours)
82 }
83
445e7bbc 84 # TODO: 7 == magic number
eef54517 85 if (simtype=="endo" || simtype=="mix")
af3b84f4 86 {
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87 best_window_endo = optimize(
88 errorOnLastNdays, c(0,7), simtype="endo")$minimum
af3b84f4 89 }
eef54517 90 if (simtype=="exo" || simtype=="mix")
af3b84f4 91 {
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92 best_window_exo = optimize(
93 errorOnLastNdays, c(0,7), simtype="exo")$minimum
3d69ff21 94 }
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95
96 best_window =
97 if (simtype == "endo")
98 best_window_endo
99 else if (simtype == "exo")
100 best_window_exo
101 else if (simtype == "mix")
102 c(best_window_endo,best_window_exo)
103 else #none: value doesn't matter
104 1
105
106 return(private$.predictShapeAux(data, fdays, today, horizon, local,
107 best_window, simtype, TRUE))
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108 }
109 ),
110 private = list(
3d69ff21 111 # Precondition: "today" is full (no NAs)
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112 .predictShapeAux = function(data, fdays, today, horizon, local, window, simtype,
113 final_call)
3d69ff21 114 {
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115 fdays_cut = fdays[ fdays < today ]
116 if (length(fdays_cut) <= 1)
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117 return (NA)
118
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119 if (local)
120 {
3ddf1c12 121 # TODO: 60 == magic number
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122 fdays = getSimilarDaysIndices(today, data, limit=60, same_season=TRUE,
123 days_in=fdays_cut)
124 if (length(fdays) <= 1)
125 return (NA)
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126 # TODO: 10, 12 == magic numbers
127 fdays = .getConstrainedNeighbs(today,data,fdays,min_neighbs=10,max_neighbs=12)
128 if (length(fdays) == 1)
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129 {
130 if (final_call)
131 {
132 private$.params$weights <- 1
133 private$.params$indices <- fdays
134 private$.params$window <- 1
135 }
2057c793 136 return ( data$getSerie(fdays[1])[1:horizon] )
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137 }
138 }
139 else
140 fdays = fdays_cut #no conditioning
141
445e7bbc 142 if (simtype == "endo" || simtype == "mix")
3d69ff21 143 {
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144 # Compute endogen similarities using given window
145 window_endo = ifelse(simtype=="mix", window[1], window)
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146
147 # Distances from last observed day to days in the past
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148 serieToday = data$getSerie(today)
149 distances2 = sapply(fdays, function(i) {
150 delta = serieToday - data$getSerie(i)
151 mean(delta^2)
152 })
3d69ff21 153
3ddf1c12 154 simils_endo <- .computeSimils(distances2, window_endo)
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155 }
156
445e7bbc 157 if (simtype == "exo" || simtype == "mix")
3d69ff21 158 {
aa059de7 159 # Compute exogen similarities using given window
445e7bbc 160 window_exo = ifelse(simtype=="mix", window[2], window)
3d69ff21 161
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162 M = matrix( nrow=1+length(fdays), ncol=1+length(data$getExo(today)) )
163 M[1,] = c( data$getLevel(today), as.double(data$getExo(today)) )
f17665c7 164 for (i in seq_along(fdays))
25b75559 165 M[i+1,] = c( data$getLevel(fdays[i]), as.double(data$getExo(fdays[i])) )
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166
167 sigma = cov(M) #NOTE: robust covariance is way too slow
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168 # TODO: 10 == magic number; more robust way == det, or always ginv()
169 sigma_inv =
170 if (length(fdays) > 10)
171 solve(sigma)
172 else
173 MASS::ginv(sigma)
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174
175 # Distances from last observed day to days in the past
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176 distances2 = sapply(seq_along(fdays), function(i) {
177 delta = M[1,] - M[i+1,]
178 delta %*% sigma_inv %*% delta
179 })
3d69ff21 180
3ddf1c12 181 simils_exo <- .computeSimils(distances2, window_exo)
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182 }
183
3d69ff21 184 similarities =
f17665c7 185 if (simtype == "exo")
3d69ff21 186 simils_exo
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187 else if (simtype == "endo")
188 simils_endo
445e7bbc 189 else if (simtype == "mix")
f17665c7 190 simils_endo * simils_exo
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191 else #none
192 rep(1, length(fdays))
ea5c7e56 193 similarities = similarities / sum(similarities)
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194
195 prediction = rep(0, horizon)
a66a84b5 196 for (i in seq_along(fdays))
aa059de7 197 prediction = prediction + similarities[i] * data$getSerie(fdays[i]+1)[1:horizon]
99f83c9a 198
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199 if (final_call)
200 {
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201 private$.params$weights <- similarities
202 private$.params$indices <- fdays
203 private$.params$window <-
546b0cb6 204 if (simtype=="endo")
aa059de7 205 window_endo
546b0cb6 206 else if (simtype=="exo")
aa059de7 207 window_exo
eef54517 208 else if (simtype=="mix")
aa059de7 209 c(window_endo,window_exo)
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210 else #none
211 1
3d69ff21 212 }
99f83c9a 213
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214 return (prediction)
215 }
216 )
217)
3ddf1c12 218
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219#' getConstrainedNeighbs
220#'
221#' Get indices of neighbors of similar pollution level (among same season + day type).
222#'
223#' @param today Index of current day
224#' @param data Object of class Data
225#' @param fdays Current set of "first days" (no-NA pairs)
226#' @param min_neighbs Minimum number of points in a neighborhood
227#' @param max_neighbs Maximum number of points in a neighborhood
228#'
229.getConstrainedNeighbs = function(today, data, fdays, min_neighbs=10, max_neighbs=12)
230{
231 levelToday = data$getLevel(today)
232 distances = sapply(fdays, function(i) abs(data$getLevel(i)-levelToday))
233 #TODO: 2, +3 : magic numbers
234 dist_thresh = 2
235 min_neighbs = min(min_neighbs,length(fdays))
236 repeat
237 {
238 same_pollution = (distances <= dist_thresh)
239 nb_neighbs = sum(same_pollution)
240 if (nb_neighbs >= min_neighbs) #will eventually happen
241 break
242 dist_thresh = dist_thresh + 3
243 }
244 fdays = fdays[same_pollution]
245 max_neighbs = 12
246 if (nb_neighbs > max_neighbs)
247 {
248 # Keep only max_neighbs closest neighbors
249 fdays = fdays[
250 sort(distances[same_pollution],index.return=TRUE)$ix[1:max_neighbs] ]
251 }
c36568fa 252 fdays
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253}
254
255#' compute similarities
256#'
257#' Apply the gaussian kernel on computed squared distances.
258#'
259#' @param distances2 Squared distances
260#' @param window Window parameter for the kernel
261#'
262.computeSimils <- function(distances2, window)
263{
264 sd_dist = sd(distances2)
265 if (sd_dist < .25 * sqrt(.Machine$double.eps))
266 {
267# warning("All computed distances are very close: stdev too small")
268 sd_dist = 1 #mostly for tests... FIXME:
269 }
270 exp(-distances2/(sd_dist*window^2))
271}