reports/report.ipynb

   1 {
   2  "cells": [
   3   {
   4    "cell_type": "markdown",
   5    "metadata": {
   6     "deletable": true,
   7     "editable": true
   8    },
   9    "source": [
  10     "\n",
  11     "\n",
  12     "<h2>Introduction</h2>\n",
  13     "\n",
  14     "J'ai fait quelques essais dans différentes configurations pour la méthode \"Neighbors\"\n",
  15     "(la seule dont on a parlé).<br>Il semble que le mieux soit\n",
  16     "\n",
  17     " * simtype=\"exo\" ou \"mix\" : similarités exogènes avec/sans endogènes (fenêtre optimisée par VC)\n",
  18     " * same_season=FALSE : les indices pour la validation croisée ne tiennent pas compte des saisons\n",
  19     " * mix_strategy=\"mult\" : on multiplie les poids (au lieu d'en éteindre)\n",
  20     "\n",
  21     "J'ai systématiquement comparé à une approche naïve : la moyennes des lendemains des jours\n",
  22     "\"similaires\" dans tout le passé ; à chaque fois sans prédiction du saut (sauf pour Neighbors :\n",
  23     "prédiction basée sur les poids calculés).\n",
  24     "\n",
  25     "Ensuite j'affiche les erreurs, quelques courbes prévues/mesurées, quelques filaments puis les\n",
  26     "histogrammes de quelques poids. Concernant les graphes de filaments, la moitié gauche du graphe\n",
  27     "correspond aux jours similaires au jour courant, tandis que la moitié droite affiche les\n",
  28     "lendemains : ce sont donc les voisinages tels qu'utilisés dans l'algorithme.\n",
  29     "\n"
  30    ]
  31   },
  32   {
  33    "cell_type": "code",
  34    "execution_count": null,
  35    "metadata": {
  36     "collapsed": false,
  37     "deletable": true,
  38     "editable": true
  39    },
  40    "outputs": [],
  41    "source": [
  42     "library(talweg)\n",
  43     "\n",
  44     "ts_data = read.csv(system.file(\"extdata\",\"pm10_mesures_H_loc_report.csv\",package=\"talweg\"))\n",
  45     "exo_data = read.csv(system.file(\"extdata\",\"meteo_extra_noNAs.csv\",package=\"talweg\"))\n",
  46     "# Predict from P+1 to P+H included\n",
  47     "H = 17\n",
  48     "data = getData(ts_data, exo_data, input_tz = \"GMT\", working_tz=\"GMT\", predict_at=7)\n",
  49     "\n",
  50     "indices_ch = seq(as.Date(\"2015-01-18\"),as.Date(\"2015-01-24\"),\"days\")\n",
  51     "indices_ep = seq(as.Date(\"2015-03-15\"),as.Date(\"2015-03-21\"),\"days\")\n",
  52     "indices_np = seq(as.Date(\"2015-04-26\"),as.Date(\"2015-05-02\"),\"days\")"
  53    ]
  54   },
  55   {
  56    "cell_type": "markdown",
  57    "metadata": {
  58     "deletable": true,
  59     "editable": true
  60    },
  61    "source": [
  62     "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Pollution par chauffage</h2>"
  63    ]
  64   },
  65   {
  66    "cell_type": "code",
  67    "execution_count": null,
  68    "metadata": {
  69     "collapsed": false,
  70     "deletable": true,
  71     "editable": true
  72    },
  73    "outputs": [],
  74    "source": [
  75     "reload(\"../pkg\")\n",
  76     "#p1 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
  77     "#p2 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"endo\")\n",
  78     "#p3 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"mix\")\n",
  79     "p4 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
  80     "p5 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"endo\")\n",
  81     "p6 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"mix\")"
  82    ]
  83   },
  84   {
  85    "cell_type": "code",
  86    "execution_count": null,
  87    "metadata": {
  88     "collapsed": false
  89    },
  90    "outputs": [],
  91    "source": [
  92     "getSimilarDaysIndices(1000,10,TRUE,data)"
  93    ]
  94   },
  95   {
  96    "cell_type": "code",
  97    "execution_count": null,
  98    "metadata": {
  99     "collapsed": false
 100    },
 101    "outputs": [],
 102    "source": [
 103     "as.POSIXlt(data$getTime(1000)[1])"
 104    ]
 105   },
 106   {
 107    "cell_type": "code",
 108    "execution_count": null,
 109    "metadata": {
 110     "collapsed": false
 111    },
 112    "outputs": [],
 113    "source": [
 114     "e1 = computeError(data, p1, H)\n",
 115     "e2 = computeError(data, p2, H)\n",
 116     "e3 = computeError(data, p3, H)\n",
 117     "e4 = computeError(data, p4, H)\n",
 118     "e5 = computeError(data, p5, H)\n",
 119     "e6 = computeError(data, p6, H)\n",
 120     "plotError(list(e1,e2,e3,e4,e5,e6), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4,5,6))"
 121    ]
 122   },
 123   {
 124    "cell_type": "code",
 125    "execution_count": null,
 126    "metadata": {
 127     "collapsed": false,
 128     "deletable": true,
 129     "editable": true
 130    },
 131    "outputs": [],
 132    "source": [
 133     "plotError(list(e4,e1,e2,e3, e5,e6), cols=c(1,2,3,4,5,6))"
 134    ]
 135   },
 136   {
 137    "cell_type": "code",
 138    "execution_count": null,
 139    "metadata": {
 140     "collapsed": false,
 141     "deletable": true,
 142     "editable": true
 143    },
 144    "outputs": [],
 145    "source": [
 146     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n",
 147     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 148     "\n",
 149     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 150     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 151     "\n",
 152     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 153     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 154     "\n",
 155     "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n",
 156     "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n",
 157     "\n",
 158     "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée"
 159    ]
 160   },
 161   {
 162    "cell_type": "code",
 163    "execution_count": null,
 164    "metadata": {
 165     "collapsed": false,
 166     "deletable": true,
 167     "editable": true
 168    },
 169    "outputs": [],
 170    "source": [
 171     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 172     "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 173     "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 174     "\n",
 175     "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 176     "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))"
 177    ]
 178   },
 179   {
 180    "cell_type": "code",
 181    "execution_count": null,
 182    "metadata": {
 183     "collapsed": false,
 184     "deletable": true,
 185     "editable": true
 186    },
 187    "outputs": [],
 188    "source": [
 189     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 190     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 191     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 192     "\n",
 193     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 194     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))"
 195    ]
 196   },
 197   {
 198    "cell_type": "code",
 199    "execution_count": null,
 200    "metadata": {
 201     "collapsed": false,
 202     "deletable": true,
 203     "editable": true
 204    },
 205    "outputs": [],
 206    "source": [
 207     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 208     "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 209     "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 210     "\n",
 211     "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 212     "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 213     "\n",
 214     "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir"
 215    ]
 216   },
 217   {
 218    "cell_type": "code",
 219    "execution_count": null,
 220    "metadata": {
 221     "collapsed": false,
 222     "deletable": true,
 223     "editable": true
 224    },
 225    "outputs": [],
 226    "source": [
 227     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 228     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 229     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 230     "\n",
 231     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 232     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 233     "\n",
 234     "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite"
 235    ]
 236   },
 237   {
 238    "cell_type": "code",
 239    "execution_count": null,
 240    "metadata": {
 241     "collapsed": false,
 242     "deletable": true,
 243     "editable": true
 244    },
 245    "outputs": [],
 246    "source": [
 247     "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n",
 248     "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n",
 249     "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n",
 250     "\n",
 251     "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n",
 252     "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window"
 253    ]
 254   },
 255   {
 256    "cell_type": "markdown",
 257    "metadata": {
 258     "deletable": true,
 259     "editable": true
 260    },
 261    "source": [
 262     "\n",
 263     "\n",
 264     "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Pollution par épandage</h2>"
 265    ]
 266   },
 267   {
 268    "cell_type": "code",
 269    "execution_count": null,
 270    "metadata": {
 271     "collapsed": false,
 272     "deletable": true,
 273     "editable": true
 274    },
 275    "outputs": [],
 276    "source": [
 277     "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
 278     "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
 279     "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
 280     "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n",
 281     "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n",
 282     "\thorizon=3)\n",
 283     "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n",
 284     "\thorizon=3, same_day=TRUE)"
 285    ]
 286   },
 287   {
 288    "cell_type": "code",
 289    "execution_count": null,
 290    "metadata": {
 291     "collapsed": false,
 292     "deletable": true,
 293     "editable": true
 294    },
 295    "outputs": [],
 296    "source": [
 297     "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n",
 298     "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n",
 299     "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n",
 300     "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n",
 301     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n",
 302     "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n",
 303     "\n",
 304     "# Noir: neighbors_mix, bleu: neighbors_exo, vert: moyenne, rouge: persistence\n",
 305     "\n",
 306     "i_np = which.min(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)\n",
 307     "i_p = which.max(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)"
 308    ]
 309   },
 310   {
 311    "cell_type": "code",
 312    "execution_count": null,
 313    "metadata": {
 314     "collapsed": false,
 315     "deletable": true,
 316     "editable": true
 317    },
 318    "outputs": [],
 319    "source": [
 320     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n",
 321     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 322     "\n",
 323     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 324     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 325     "\n",
 326     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 327     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 328     "\n",
 329     "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n",
 330     "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n",
 331     "\n",
 332     "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée"
 333    ]
 334   },
 335   {
 336    "cell_type": "code",
 337    "execution_count": null,
 338    "metadata": {
 339     "collapsed": false,
 340     "deletable": true,
 341     "editable": true
 342    },
 343    "outputs": [],
 344    "source": [
 345     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 346     "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 347     "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 348     "\n",
 349     "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 350     "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))"
 351    ]
 352   },
 353   {
 354    "cell_type": "code",
 355    "execution_count": null,
 356    "metadata": {
 357     "collapsed": false,
 358     "deletable": true,
 359     "editable": true
 360    },
 361    "outputs": [],
 362    "source": [
 363     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 364     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 365     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 366     "\n",
 367     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 368     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))"
 369    ]
 370   },
 371   {
 372    "cell_type": "code",
 373    "execution_count": null,
 374    "metadata": {
 375     "collapsed": false,
 376     "deletable": true,
 377     "editable": true
 378    },
 379    "outputs": [],
 380    "source": [
 381     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 382     "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 383     "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 384     "\n",
 385     "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 386     "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 387     "\n",
 388     "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir"
 389    ]
 390   },
 391   {
 392    "cell_type": "code",
 393    "execution_count": null,
 394    "metadata": {
 395     "collapsed": false,
 396     "deletable": true,
 397     "editable": true
 398    },
 399    "outputs": [],
 400    "source": [
 401     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 402     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 403     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 404     "\n",
 405     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 406     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 407     "\n",
 408     "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite"
 409    ]
 410   },
 411   {
 412    "cell_type": "code",
 413    "execution_count": null,
 414    "metadata": {
 415     "collapsed": false,
 416     "deletable": true,
 417     "editable": true
 418    },
 419    "outputs": [],
 420    "source": [
 421     "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n",
 422     "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n",
 423     "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n",
 424     "\n",
 425     "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n",
 426     "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window"
 427    ]
 428   },
 429   {
 430    "cell_type": "markdown",
 431    "metadata": {
 432     "deletable": true,
 433     "editable": true
 434    },
 435    "source": [
 436     "\n",
 437     "\n",
 438     "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Semaine non polluée</h2>"
 439    ]
 440   },
 441   {
 442    "cell_type": "code",
 443    "execution_count": null,
 444    "metadata": {
 445     "collapsed": false,
 446     "deletable": true,
 447     "editable": true
 448    },
 449    "outputs": [],
 450    "source": [
 451     "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
 452     "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
 453     "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
 454     "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n",
 455     "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n",
 456     "\thorizon=3)\n",
 457     "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n",
 458     "\thorizon=3, same_day=FALSE)"
 459    ]
 460   },
 461   {
 462    "cell_type": "code",
 463    "execution_count": null,
 464    "metadata": {
 465     "collapsed": false,
 466     "deletable": true,
 467     "editable": true
 468    },
 469    "outputs": [],
 470    "source": [
 471     "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n",
 472     "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n",
 473     "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n",
 474     "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n",
 475     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n",
 476     "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n",
 477     "\n",
 478     "# Noir: neighbors_mix, bleu: neighbors_exo, vert: moyenne, rouge: persistence\n",
 479     "\n",
 480     "i_np = which.min(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)\n",
 481     "i_p = which.max(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)"
 482    ]
 483   },
 484   {
 485    "cell_type": "code",
 486    "execution_count": null,
 487    "metadata": {
 488     "collapsed": false,
 489     "deletable": true,
 490     "editable": true
 491    },
 492    "outputs": [],
 493    "source": [
 494     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n",
 495     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 496     "\n",
 497     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 498     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 499     "\n",
 500     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 501     "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 502     "\n",
 503     "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n",
 504     "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n",
 505     "\n",
 506     "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée"
 507    ]
 508   },
 509   {
 510    "cell_type": "code",
 511    "execution_count": null,
 512    "metadata": {
 513     "collapsed": false,
 514     "deletable": true,
 515     "editable": true
 516    },
 517    "outputs": [],
 518    "source": [
 519     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 520     "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 521     "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 522     "\n",
 523     "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 524     "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))"
 525    ]
 526   },
 527   {
 528    "cell_type": "code",
 529    "execution_count": null,
 530    "metadata": {
 531     "collapsed": false,
 532     "deletable": true,
 533     "editable": true
 534    },
 535    "outputs": [],
 536    "source": [
 537     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 538     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 539     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 540     "\n",
 541     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 542     "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))"
 543    ]
 544   },
 545   {
 546    "cell_type": "code",
 547    "execution_count": null,
 548    "metadata": {
 549     "collapsed": false,
 550     "deletable": true,
 551     "editable": true
 552    },
 553    "outputs": [],
 554    "source": [
 555     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 556     "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 557     "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 558     "\n",
 559     "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 560     "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 561     "\n",
 562     "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir"
 563    ]
 564   },
 565   {
 566    "cell_type": "code",
 567    "execution_count": null,
 568    "metadata": {
 569     "collapsed": false,
 570     "deletable": true,
 571     "editable": true
 572    },
 573    "outputs": [],
 574    "source": [
 575     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
 576     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
 577     "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
 578     "\n",
 579     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
 580     "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
 581     "\n",
 582     "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite"
 583    ]
 584   },
 585   {
 586    "cell_type": "code",
 587    "execution_count": null,
 588    "metadata": {
 589     "collapsed": false,
 590     "deletable": true,
 591     "editable": true
 592    },
 593    "outputs": [],
 594    "source": [
 595     "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n",
 596     "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n",
 597     "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n",
 598     "\n",
 599     "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n",
 600     "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window"
 601    ]
 602   },
 603   {
 604    "cell_type": "markdown",
 605    "metadata": {
 606     "deletable": true,
 607     "editable": true
 608    },
 609    "source": [
 610     "\n",
 611     "\n",
 612     "<h2>Bilan</h2>\n",
 613     "\n",
 614     "Problème difficile : on ne fait guère mieux qu'une naïve moyenne des lendemains des jours\n",
 615     "similaires dans le passé, ce qui n'est pas loin de prédire une série constante égale à la\n",
 616     "dernière valeur observée (méthode \"zéro\"). La persistence donne parfois de bons résultats\n",
 617     "mais est trop instable (sensibilité à l'argument <code>same_day</code>).\n",
 618     "\n",
 619     "Comment améliorer la méthode ?"
 620    ]
 621   }
 622  ],
 623  "metadata": {
 624   "kernelspec": {
 625    "display_name": "R",
 626    "language": "R",
 627    "name": "ir"
 628   },
 629   "language_info": {
 630    "codemirror_mode": "r",
 631    "file_extension": ".r",
 632    "mimetype": "text/x-r-source",
 633    "name": "R",
 634    "pygments_lexer": "r",
 635    "version": "3.3.3"
 636   }
 637  },
 638  "nbformat": 4,
 639  "nbformat_minor": 2
 640 }