| 1 | { |
| 2 | "cells": [ |
| 3 | { |
| 4 | "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 5 | "metadata": { |
| 6 | "deletable": true, |
| 7 | "editable": true |
| 8 | }, |
| 9 | "source": [ |
| 10 | "\n", |
| 11 | "\n", |
| 12 | "<h2>Introduction</h2>\n", |
| 13 | "\n", |
| 14 | "J'ai fait quelques essais dans différentes configurations pour la méthode \"Neighbors\"\n", |
| 15 | "(la seule dont on a parlé).<br>Il semble que le mieux soit\n", |
| 16 | "\n", |
| 17 | " * simtype=\"exo\" ou \"mix\" : similarités exogènes avec/sans endogènes (fenêtre optimisée par VC)\n", |
| 18 | " * same_season=FALSE : les indices pour la validation croisée ne tiennent pas compte des saisons\n", |
| 19 | " * mix_strategy=\"mult\" : on multiplie les poids (au lieu d'en éteindre)\n", |
| 20 | "\n", |
| 21 | "J'ai systématiquement comparé à une approche naïve : la moyennes des lendemains des jours\n", |
| 22 | "\"similaires\" dans tout le passé ; à chaque fois sans prédiction du saut (sauf pour Neighbors :\n", |
| 23 | "prédiction basée sur les poids calculés).\n", |
| 24 | "\n", |
| 25 | "Ensuite j'affiche les erreurs, quelques courbes prévues/mesurées, quelques filaments puis les\n", |
| 26 | "histogrammes de quelques poids. Concernant les graphes de filaments, la moitié gauche du graphe\n", |
| 27 | "correspond aux jours similaires au jour courant, tandis que la moitié droite affiche les\n", |
| 28 | "lendemains : ce sont donc les voisinages tels qu'utilisés dans l'algorithme.\n", |
| 29 | "\n" |
| 30 | ] |
| 31 | }, |
| 32 | { |
| 33 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 34 | "execution_count": null, |
| 35 | "metadata": { |
| 36 | "collapsed": false, |
| 37 | "deletable": true, |
| 38 | "editable": true |
| 39 | }, |
| 40 | "outputs": [], |
| 41 | "source": [ |
| 42 | "library(talweg)\n", |
| 43 | "\n", |
| 44 | "ts_data = read.csv(system.file(\"extdata\",\"pm10_mesures_H_loc_report.csv\",package=\"talweg\"))\n", |
| 45 | "exo_data = read.csv(system.file(\"extdata\",\"meteo_extra_noNAs.csv\",package=\"talweg\"))\n", |
| 46 | "# Predict from P+1 to P+H included\n", |
| 47 | "H = 17\n", |
| 48 | "data = getData(ts_data, exo_data, input_tz = \"GMT\", working_tz=\"GMT\", predict_at=7)\n", |
| 49 | "\n", |
| 50 | "indices_ch = seq(as.Date(\"2015-01-18\"),as.Date(\"2015-01-24\"),\"days\")\n", |
| 51 | "indices_ep = seq(as.Date(\"2015-03-15\"),as.Date(\"2015-03-21\"),\"days\")\n", |
| 52 | "indices_np = seq(as.Date(\"2015-04-26\"),as.Date(\"2015-05-02\"),\"days\")" |
| 53 | ] |
| 54 | }, |
| 55 | { |
| 56 | "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 57 | "metadata": { |
| 58 | "deletable": true, |
| 59 | "editable": true |
| 60 | }, |
| 61 | "source": [ |
| 62 | "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Pollution par chauffage</h2>" |
| 63 | ] |
| 64 | }, |
| 65 | { |
| 66 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 67 | "execution_count": null, |
| 68 | "metadata": { |
| 69 | "collapsed": false, |
| 70 | "deletable": true, |
| 71 | "editable": true |
| 72 | }, |
| 73 | "outputs": [], |
| 74 | "source": [ |
| 75 | "reload(\"../pkg\")\n", |
| 76 | "#p1 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"exo\")\n", |
| 77 | "#p2 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"endo\")\n", |
| 78 | "p3 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"mix\")\n", |
| 79 | "p4 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\", horizon=H, simtype=\"mix\")\n", |
| 80 | "#p4 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"exo\")\n", |
| 81 | "#p5 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"endo\")\n", |
| 82 | "#p6 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"mix\")" |
| 83 | ] |
| 84 | }, |
| 85 | { |
| 86 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 87 | "execution_count": null, |
| 88 | "metadata": { |
| 89 | "collapsed": false, |
| 90 | "deletable": true, |
| 91 | "editable": true |
| 92 | }, |
| 93 | "outputs": [], |
| 94 | "source": [ |
| 95 | "getSimilarDaysIndices(1000,10,TRUE,data)" |
| 96 | ] |
| 97 | }, |
| 98 | { |
| 99 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 100 | "execution_count": null, |
| 101 | "metadata": { |
| 102 | "collapsed": false, |
| 103 | "deletable": true, |
| 104 | "editable": true |
| 105 | }, |
| 106 | "outputs": [], |
| 107 | "source": [ |
| 108 | "as.POSIXlt(data$getTime(1000)[1])" |
| 109 | ] |
| 110 | }, |
| 111 | { |
| 112 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 113 | "execution_count": null, |
| 114 | "metadata": { |
| 115 | "collapsed": false, |
| 116 | "deletable": true, |
| 117 | "editable": true |
| 118 | }, |
| 119 | "outputs": [], |
| 120 | "source": [ |
| 121 | "#e1 = computeError(data, p1, H)\n", |
| 122 | "#e2 = computeError(data, p2, H)\n", |
| 123 | "e3 = computeError(data, p3, H)\n", |
| 124 | "e4 = computeError(data, p4, H)\n", |
| 125 | "#e5 = computeError(data, p5, H)\n", |
| 126 | "#e6 = computeError(data, p6, H)\n", |
| 127 | "plotError(list(e3,e4), cols=c(1,2))" |
| 128 | ] |
| 129 | }, |
| 130 | { |
| 131 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 132 | "execution_count": null, |
| 133 | "metadata": { |
| 134 | "collapsed": false, |
| 135 | "deletable": true, |
| 136 | "editable": true |
| 137 | }, |
| 138 | "outputs": [], |
| 139 | "source": [ |
| 140 | "\tfirst_day = 1\n", |
| 141 | "params=p3$getParams(3)\n", |
| 142 | "\tfilter = (params$indices >= first_day)\n", |
| 143 | "\tindices = params$indices[filter]\n", |
| 144 | "\tweights = params$weights[filter]\n", |
| 145 | "\n", |
| 146 | "\n", |
| 147 | "\tgaps = sapply(indices, function(i) {\n", |
| 148 | "\t\tdata$getSerie(i+1)[1] - tail(data$getSerie(i), 1)\n", |
| 149 | "\t})\n", |
| 150 | "\tscal_product = weights * gaps\n", |
| 151 | "\tnorm_fact = sum( weights[!is.na(scal_product)] )\n", |
| 152 | "\tsum(scal_product, na.rm=TRUE) / norm_fact\n" |
| 153 | ] |
| 154 | }, |
| 155 | { |
| 156 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 157 | "execution_count": null, |
| 158 | "metadata": { |
| 159 | "collapsed": false |
| 160 | }, |
| 161 | "outputs": [], |
| 162 | "source": [ |
| 163 | "hist(weights)" |
| 164 | ] |
| 165 | }, |
| 166 | { |
| 167 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 168 | "execution_count": null, |
| 169 | "metadata": { |
| 170 | "collapsed": false, |
| 171 | "deletable": true, |
| 172 | "editable": true |
| 173 | }, |
| 174 | "outputs": [], |
| 175 | "source": [ |
| 176 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n", |
| 177 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 178 | "\n", |
| 179 | "plotPredReal(data, p3, 3); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",3))\n", |
| 180 | "plotPredReal(data, p3, 5); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",5))\n", |
| 181 | "\n", |
| 182 | "plotPredReal(data, p4, 3); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",3))\n", |
| 183 | "plotPredReal(data, p4, 5); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",5))\n", |
| 184 | "\n", |
| 185 | "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée" |
| 186 | ] |
| 187 | }, |
| 188 | { |
| 189 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 190 | "execution_count": null, |
| 191 | "metadata": { |
| 192 | "collapsed": false, |
| 193 | "deletable": true, |
| 194 | "editable": true |
| 195 | }, |
| 196 | "outputs": [], |
| 197 | "source": [ |
| 198 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 199 | "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n", |
| 200 | "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n", |
| 201 | "\n", |
| 202 | "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n", |
| 203 | "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))" |
| 204 | ] |
| 205 | }, |
| 206 | { |
| 207 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 208 | "execution_count": null, |
| 209 | "metadata": { |
| 210 | "collapsed": false, |
| 211 | "deletable": true, |
| 212 | "editable": true |
| 213 | }, |
| 214 | "outputs": [], |
| 215 | "source": [ |
| 216 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 217 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n", |
| 218 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n", |
| 219 | "\n", |
| 220 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n", |
| 221 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))" |
| 222 | ] |
| 223 | }, |
| 224 | { |
| 225 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 226 | "execution_count": null, |
| 227 | "metadata": { |
| 228 | "collapsed": false, |
| 229 | "deletable": true, |
| 230 | "editable": true |
| 231 | }, |
| 232 | "outputs": [], |
| 233 | "source": [ |
| 234 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 235 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n", |
| 236 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n", |
| 237 | "\n", |
| 238 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n", |
| 239 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n", |
| 240 | "\n", |
| 241 | "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir" |
| 242 | ] |
| 243 | }, |
| 244 | { |
| 245 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 246 | "execution_count": null, |
| 247 | "metadata": { |
| 248 | "collapsed": false, |
| 249 | "deletable": true, |
| 250 | "editable": true |
| 251 | }, |
| 252 | "outputs": [], |
| 253 | "source": [ |
| 254 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 255 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n", |
| 256 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n", |
| 257 | "\n", |
| 258 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n", |
| 259 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n", |
| 260 | "\n", |
| 261 | "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite" |
| 262 | ] |
| 263 | }, |
| 264 | { |
| 265 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 266 | "execution_count": null, |
| 267 | "metadata": { |
| 268 | "collapsed": false, |
| 269 | "deletable": true, |
| 270 | "editable": true |
| 271 | }, |
| 272 | "outputs": [], |
| 273 | "source": [ |
| 274 | "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n", |
| 275 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n", |
| 276 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n", |
| 277 | "\n", |
| 278 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n", |
| 279 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window" |
| 280 | ] |
| 281 | }, |
| 282 | { |
| 283 | "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 284 | "metadata": { |
| 285 | "deletable": true, |
| 286 | "editable": true |
| 287 | }, |
| 288 | "source": [ |
| 289 | "\n", |
| 290 | "\n", |
| 291 | "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Pollution par épandage</h2>" |
| 292 | ] |
| 293 | }, |
| 294 | { |
| 295 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 296 | "execution_count": null, |
| 297 | "metadata": { |
| 298 | "collapsed": false, |
| 299 | "deletable": true, |
| 300 | "editable": true |
| 301 | }, |
| 302 | "outputs": [], |
| 303 | "source": [ |
| 304 | "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n", |
| 305 | "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n", |
| 306 | "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n", |
| 307 | "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n", |
| 308 | "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n", |
| 309 | "\thorizon=3)\n", |
| 310 | "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n", |
| 311 | "\thorizon=3, same_day=TRUE)" |
| 312 | ] |
| 313 | }, |
| 314 | { |
| 315 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 316 | "execution_count": null, |
| 317 | "metadata": { |
| 318 | "collapsed": false, |
| 319 | "deletable": true, |
| 320 | "editable": true |
| 321 | }, |
| 322 | "outputs": [], |
| 323 | "source": [ |
| 324 | "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n", |
| 325 | "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n", |
| 326 | "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n", |
| 327 | "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n", |
| 328 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n", |
| 329 | "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n", |
| 330 | "\n", |
| 331 | "# Noir: neighbors_mix, bleu: neighbors_exo, vert: moyenne, rouge: persistence\n", |
| 332 | "\n", |
| 333 | "i_np = which.min(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)\n", |
| 334 | "i_p = which.max(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)" |
| 335 | ] |
| 336 | }, |
| 337 | { |
| 338 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 339 | "execution_count": null, |
| 340 | "metadata": { |
| 341 | "collapsed": false, |
| 342 | "deletable": true, |
| 343 | "editable": true |
| 344 | }, |
| 345 | "outputs": [], |
| 346 | "source": [ |
| 347 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n", |
| 348 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 349 | "\n", |
| 350 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n", |
| 351 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n", |
| 352 | "\n", |
| 353 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n", |
| 354 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n", |
| 355 | "\n", |
| 356 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n", |
| 357 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n", |
| 358 | "\n", |
| 359 | "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée" |
| 360 | ] |
| 361 | }, |
| 362 | { |
| 363 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 364 | "execution_count": null, |
| 365 | "metadata": { |
| 366 | "collapsed": false, |
| 367 | "deletable": true, |
| 368 | "editable": true |
| 369 | }, |
| 370 | "outputs": [], |
| 371 | "source": [ |
| 372 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 373 | "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n", |
| 374 | "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n", |
| 375 | "\n", |
| 376 | "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n", |
| 377 | "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))" |
| 378 | ] |
| 379 | }, |
| 380 | { |
| 381 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 382 | "execution_count": null, |
| 383 | "metadata": { |
| 384 | "collapsed": false, |
| 385 | "deletable": true, |
| 386 | "editable": true |
| 387 | }, |
| 388 | "outputs": [], |
| 389 | "source": [ |
| 390 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 391 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n", |
| 392 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n", |
| 393 | "\n", |
| 394 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n", |
| 395 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))" |
| 396 | ] |
| 397 | }, |
| 398 | { |
| 399 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 400 | "execution_count": null, |
| 401 | "metadata": { |
| 402 | "collapsed": false, |
| 403 | "deletable": true, |
| 404 | "editable": true |
| 405 | }, |
| 406 | "outputs": [], |
| 407 | "source": [ |
| 408 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 409 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n", |
| 410 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n", |
| 411 | "\n", |
| 412 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n", |
| 413 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n", |
| 414 | "\n", |
| 415 | "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir" |
| 416 | ] |
| 417 | }, |
| 418 | { |
| 419 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 420 | "execution_count": null, |
| 421 | "metadata": { |
| 422 | "collapsed": false, |
| 423 | "deletable": true, |
| 424 | "editable": true |
| 425 | }, |
| 426 | "outputs": [], |
| 427 | "source": [ |
| 428 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 429 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n", |
| 430 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n", |
| 431 | "\n", |
| 432 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n", |
| 433 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n", |
| 434 | "\n", |
| 435 | "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite" |
| 436 | ] |
| 437 | }, |
| 438 | { |
| 439 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 440 | "execution_count": null, |
| 441 | "metadata": { |
| 442 | "collapsed": false, |
| 443 | "deletable": true, |
| 444 | "editable": true |
| 445 | }, |
| 446 | "outputs": [], |
| 447 | "source": [ |
| 448 | "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n", |
| 449 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n", |
| 450 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n", |
| 451 | "\n", |
| 452 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n", |
| 453 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window" |
| 454 | ] |
| 455 | }, |
| 456 | { |
| 457 | "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 458 | "metadata": { |
| 459 | "deletable": true, |
| 460 | "editable": true |
| 461 | }, |
| 462 | "source": [ |
| 463 | "\n", |
| 464 | "\n", |
| 465 | "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Semaine non polluée</h2>" |
| 466 | ] |
| 467 | }, |
| 468 | { |
| 469 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 470 | "execution_count": null, |
| 471 | "metadata": { |
| 472 | "collapsed": false, |
| 473 | "deletable": true, |
| 474 | "editable": true |
| 475 | }, |
| 476 | "outputs": [], |
| 477 | "source": [ |
| 478 | "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n", |
| 479 | "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n", |
| 480 | "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n", |
| 481 | "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n", |
| 482 | "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n", |
| 483 | "\thorizon=3)\n", |
| 484 | "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n", |
| 485 | "\thorizon=3, same_day=FALSE)" |
| 486 | ] |
| 487 | }, |
| 488 | { |
| 489 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 490 | "execution_count": null, |
| 491 | "metadata": { |
| 492 | "collapsed": false, |
| 493 | "deletable": true, |
| 494 | "editable": true |
| 495 | }, |
| 496 | "outputs": [], |
| 497 | "source": [ |
| 498 | "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n", |
| 499 | "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n", |
| 500 | "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n", |
| 501 | "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n", |
| 502 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n", |
| 503 | "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n", |
| 504 | "\n", |
| 505 | "# Noir: neighbors_mix, bleu: neighbors_exo, vert: moyenne, rouge: persistence\n", |
| 506 | "\n", |
| 507 | "i_np = which.min(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)\n", |
| 508 | "i_p = which.max(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)" |
| 509 | ] |
| 510 | }, |
| 511 | { |
| 512 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 513 | "execution_count": null, |
| 514 | "metadata": { |
| 515 | "collapsed": false, |
| 516 | "deletable": true, |
| 517 | "editable": true |
| 518 | }, |
| 519 | "outputs": [], |
| 520 | "source": [ |
| 521 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n", |
| 522 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 523 | "\n", |
| 524 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n", |
| 525 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n", |
| 526 | "\n", |
| 527 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n", |
| 528 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n", |
| 529 | "\n", |
| 530 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n", |
| 531 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n", |
| 532 | "\n", |
| 533 | "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée" |
| 534 | ] |
| 535 | }, |
| 536 | { |
| 537 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 538 | "execution_count": null, |
| 539 | "metadata": { |
| 540 | "collapsed": false, |
| 541 | "deletable": true, |
| 542 | "editable": true |
| 543 | }, |
| 544 | "outputs": [], |
| 545 | "source": [ |
| 546 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 547 | "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n", |
| 548 | "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n", |
| 549 | "\n", |
| 550 | "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n", |
| 551 | "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))" |
| 552 | ] |
| 553 | }, |
| 554 | { |
| 555 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 556 | "execution_count": null, |
| 557 | "metadata": { |
| 558 | "collapsed": false, |
| 559 | "deletable": true, |
| 560 | "editable": true |
| 561 | }, |
| 562 | "outputs": [], |
| 563 | "source": [ |
| 564 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 565 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n", |
| 566 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n", |
| 567 | "\n", |
| 568 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n", |
| 569 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))" |
| 570 | ] |
| 571 | }, |
| 572 | { |
| 573 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 574 | "execution_count": null, |
| 575 | "metadata": { |
| 576 | "collapsed": false, |
| 577 | "deletable": true, |
| 578 | "editable": true |
| 579 | }, |
| 580 | "outputs": [], |
| 581 | "source": [ |
| 582 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 583 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n", |
| 584 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n", |
| 585 | "\n", |
| 586 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n", |
| 587 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n", |
| 588 | "\n", |
| 589 | "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir" |
| 590 | ] |
| 591 | }, |
| 592 | { |
| 593 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 594 | "execution_count": null, |
| 595 | "metadata": { |
| 596 | "collapsed": false, |
| 597 | "deletable": true, |
| 598 | "editable": true |
| 599 | }, |
| 600 | "outputs": [], |
| 601 | "source": [ |
| 602 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", |
| 603 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n", |
| 604 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n", |
| 605 | "\n", |
| 606 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n", |
| 607 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n", |
| 608 | "\n", |
| 609 | "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite" |
| 610 | ] |
| 611 | }, |
| 612 | { |
| 613 | "cell_type": "code", |
| 614 | "execution_count": null, |
| 615 | "metadata": { |
| 616 | "collapsed": false, |
| 617 | "deletable": true, |
| 618 | "editable": true |
| 619 | }, |
| 620 | "outputs": [], |
| 621 | "source": [ |
| 622 | "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n", |
| 623 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n", |
| 624 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n", |
| 625 | "\n", |
| 626 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n", |
| 627 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window" |
| 628 | ] |
| 629 | }, |
| 630 | { |
| 631 | "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 632 | "metadata": { |
| 633 | "deletable": true, |
| 634 | "editable": true |
| 635 | }, |
| 636 | "source": [ |
| 637 | "\n", |
| 638 | "\n", |
| 639 | "<h2>Bilan</h2>\n", |
| 640 | "\n", |
| 641 | "Problème difficile : on ne fait guère mieux qu'une naïve moyenne des lendemains des jours\n", |
| 642 | "similaires dans le passé, ce qui n'est pas loin de prédire une série constante égale à la\n", |
| 643 | "dernière valeur observée (méthode \"zéro\"). La persistence donne parfois de bons résultats\n", |
| 644 | "mais est trop instable (sensibilité à l'argument <code>same_day</code>).\n", |
| 645 | "\n", |
| 646 | "Comment améliorer la méthode ?" |
| 647 | ] |
| 648 | } |
| 649 | ], |
| 650 | "metadata": { |
| 651 | "kernelspec": { |
| 652 | "display_name": "R", |
| 653 | "language": "R", |
| 654 | "name": "ir" |
| 655 | }, |
| 656 | "language_info": { |
| 657 | "codemirror_mode": "r", |
| 658 | "file_extension": ".r", |
| 659 | "mimetype": "text/x-r-source", |
| 660 | "name": "R", |
| 661 | "pygments_lexer": "r", |
| 662 | "version": "3.3.3" |
| 663 | } |
| 664 | }, |
| 665 | "nbformat": 4, |
| 666 | "nbformat_minor": 2 |
| 667 | } |