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ff5df8e3 BA |
1 | { |
2 | "cells": [ | |
3 | { | |
4 | "cell_type": "markdown", | |
5 | "metadata": {}, | |
6 | "source": [ | |
7 | "\n", | |
8 | "\n", | |
9 | "<h2>Introduction</h2>\n", | |
10 | "\n", | |
11 | "J'ai fait quelques essais dans différentes configurations pour la méthode \"Neighbors\"\n", | |
12 | "(la seule dont on a parlé).<br>Il semble que le mieux soit\n", | |
13 | "\n", | |
14 | " * simtype=\"exo\" ou \"mix\" : similarités exogènes avec/sans endogènes (fenêtre optimisée par VC)\n", | |
15 | " * same_season=FALSE : les indices pour la validation croisée ne tiennent pas compte des saisons\n", | |
16 | " * mix_strategy=\"mult\" : on multiplie les poids (au lieu d'en éteindre)\n", | |
17 | "\n", | |
18 | "J'ai systématiquement comparé à une approche naïve : la moyennes des lendemains des jours\n", | |
19 | "\"similaires\" dans tout le passé ; à chaque fois sans prédiction du saut (sauf pour Neighbors :\n", | |
20 | "prédiction basée sur les poids calculés).\n", | |
21 | "\n", | |
22 | "Ensuite j'affiche les erreurs, quelques courbes prévues/mesurées, quelques filaments puis les\n", | |
23 | "histogrammes de quelques poids. Concernant les graphes de filaments, la moitié gauche du graphe\n", | |
24 | "correspond aux jours similaires au jour courant, tandis que la moitié droite affiche les\n", | |
25 | "lendemains : ce sont donc les voisinages tels qu'utilisés dans l'algorithme.\n", | |
26 | "\n" | |
27 | ] | |
28 | }, | |
29 | { | |
30 | "cell_type": "code", | |
31 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 32 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
33 | "outputs": [], |
34 | "source": [ | |
35 | "library(talweg)\n", | |
36 | "\n", | |
37 | "ts_data = read.csv(system.file(\"extdata\",\"pm10_mesures_H_loc_report.csv\",package=\"talweg\"))\n", | |
38 | "exo_data = read.csv(system.file(\"extdata\",\"meteo_extra_noNAs.csv\",package=\"talweg\"))\n", | |
55639673 BA |
39 | "data = getData(ts_data, exo_data, input_tz = \"Europe/Paris\", working_tz=\"Europe/Paris\",\n", |
40 | "\tpredict_at=7) #predict from P+1 to P+H included\n", | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
41 | "\n", |
42 | "indices_ch = seq(as.Date(\"2015-01-18\"),as.Date(\"2015-01-24\"),\"days\")\n", | |
43 | "indices_ep = seq(as.Date(\"2015-03-15\"),as.Date(\"2015-03-21\"),\"days\")\n", | |
55639673 | 44 | "indices_np = seq(as.Date(\"2015-04-26\"),as.Date(\"2015-05-02\"),\"days\")\n" |
ff5df8e3 BA |
45 | ] |
46 | }, | |
47 | { | |
48 | "cell_type": "markdown", | |
49 | "metadata": {}, | |
50 | "source": [ | |
51 | "\n", | |
52 | "\n", | |
53 | "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Pollution par chauffage</h2>" | |
54 | ] | |
55 | }, | |
56 | { | |
57 | "cell_type": "code", | |
58 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 59 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
60 | "outputs": [], |
61 | "source": [ | |
55639673 BA |
62 | "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n", |
63 | "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n", | |
64 | "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n", | |
65 | "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n", | |
66 | "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n", | |
67 | "\thorizon=3)\n", | |
68 | "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n", | |
69 | "\thorizon=3, same_day=TRUE)" | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
70 | ] |
71 | }, | |
72 | { | |
73 | "cell_type": "code", | |
74 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 75 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
76 | "outputs": [], |
77 | "source": [ | |
55639673 BA |
78 | "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n", |
79 | "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n", | |
80 | "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n", | |
81 | "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n", | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
82 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n", |
83 | "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n", | |
84 | "\n", | |
85 | "# Noir: neighbors_mix, bleu: neighbors_exo, vert: moyenne, rouge: persistence\n", | |
86 | "\n", | |
87 | "i_np = which.min(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)\n", | |
88 | "i_p = which.max(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)" | |
89 | ] | |
90 | }, | |
91 | { | |
92 | "cell_type": "code", | |
93 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 94 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
95 | "outputs": [], |
96 | "source": [ | |
97 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n", | |
98 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
99 | "\n", | |
100 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
101 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
102 | "\n", | |
103 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
104 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n", | |
105 | "\n", | |
106 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n", | |
107 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n", | |
108 | "\n", | |
109 | "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée" | |
110 | ] | |
111 | }, | |
112 | { | |
113 | "cell_type": "code", | |
114 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 115 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
116 | "outputs": [], |
117 | "source": [ | |
118 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
119 | "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
120 | "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
121 | "\n", | |
122 | "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
123 | "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))" | |
124 | ] | |
125 | }, | |
126 | { | |
127 | "cell_type": "code", | |
128 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 129 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
130 | "outputs": [], |
131 | "source": [ | |
132 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
133 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
134 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
135 | "\n", | |
136 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
137 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))" | |
138 | ] | |
139 | }, | |
140 | { | |
141 | "cell_type": "code", | |
142 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 143 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
144 | "outputs": [], |
145 | "source": [ | |
146 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
147 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
148 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
149 | "\n", | |
150 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
151 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n", | |
152 | "\n", | |
153 | "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir" | |
154 | ] | |
155 | }, | |
156 | { | |
157 | "cell_type": "code", | |
158 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 159 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
160 | "outputs": [], |
161 | "source": [ | |
162 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
163 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
164 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
165 | "\n", | |
166 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
d4841a3f | 167 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n", |
ff5df8e3 BA |
168 | "\n", |
169 | "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite" | |
170 | ] | |
171 | }, | |
172 | { | |
173 | "cell_type": "code", | |
174 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 175 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
176 | "outputs": [], |
177 | "source": [ | |
178 | "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n", | |
179 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n", | |
180 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n", | |
181 | "\n", | |
182 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n", | |
183 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window" | |
184 | ] | |
185 | }, | |
186 | { | |
187 | "cell_type": "markdown", | |
188 | "metadata": {}, | |
189 | "source": [ | |
190 | "\n", | |
191 | "\n", | |
192 | "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Pollution par épandage</h2>" | |
193 | ] | |
194 | }, | |
195 | { | |
196 | "cell_type": "code", | |
197 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 198 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
199 | "outputs": [], |
200 | "source": [ | |
55639673 BA |
201 | "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n", |
202 | "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n", | |
203 | "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n", | |
204 | "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n", | |
205 | "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n", | |
206 | "\thorizon=3)\n", | |
207 | "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n", | |
208 | "\thorizon=3, same_day=TRUE)" | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
209 | ] |
210 | }, | |
211 | { | |
212 | "cell_type": "code", | |
213 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 214 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
215 | "outputs": [], |
216 | "source": [ | |
55639673 BA |
217 | "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n", |
218 | "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n", | |
219 | "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n", | |
220 | "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n", | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
221 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n", |
222 | "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n", | |
223 | "\n", | |
224 | "# Noir: neighbors_mix, bleu: neighbors_exo, vert: moyenne, rouge: persistence\n", | |
225 | "\n", | |
226 | "i_np = which.min(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)\n", | |
227 | "i_p = which.max(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)" | |
228 | ] | |
229 | }, | |
230 | { | |
231 | "cell_type": "code", | |
232 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 233 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
234 | "outputs": [], |
235 | "source": [ | |
236 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n", | |
237 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
238 | "\n", | |
239 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
240 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
241 | "\n", | |
242 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
243 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n", | |
244 | "\n", | |
245 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n", | |
246 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n", | |
247 | "\n", | |
248 | "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée" | |
249 | ] | |
250 | }, | |
251 | { | |
252 | "cell_type": "code", | |
253 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 254 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
255 | "outputs": [], |
256 | "source": [ | |
257 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
258 | "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
259 | "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
260 | "\n", | |
261 | "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
262 | "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))" | |
263 | ] | |
264 | }, | |
265 | { | |
266 | "cell_type": "code", | |
267 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 268 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
269 | "outputs": [], |
270 | "source": [ | |
271 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
272 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
273 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
274 | "\n", | |
275 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
276 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))" | |
277 | ] | |
278 | }, | |
279 | { | |
280 | "cell_type": "code", | |
281 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 282 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
283 | "outputs": [], |
284 | "source": [ | |
285 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
286 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
287 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
288 | "\n", | |
289 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
290 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n", | |
291 | "\n", | |
292 | "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir" | |
293 | ] | |
294 | }, | |
295 | { | |
296 | "cell_type": "code", | |
297 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 298 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
299 | "outputs": [], |
300 | "source": [ | |
301 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
302 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
303 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
304 | "\n", | |
305 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
d4841a3f | 306 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n", |
ff5df8e3 BA |
307 | "\n", |
308 | "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite" | |
309 | ] | |
310 | }, | |
311 | { | |
312 | "cell_type": "code", | |
313 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 314 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
315 | "outputs": [], |
316 | "source": [ | |
317 | "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n", | |
318 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n", | |
319 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n", | |
320 | "\n", | |
321 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n", | |
322 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window" | |
323 | ] | |
324 | }, | |
325 | { | |
326 | "cell_type": "markdown", | |
327 | "metadata": {}, | |
328 | "source": [ | |
329 | "\n", | |
330 | "\n", | |
331 | "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Semaine non polluée</h2>" | |
332 | ] | |
333 | }, | |
334 | { | |
335 | "cell_type": "code", | |
336 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 337 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
338 | "outputs": [], |
339 | "source": [ | |
55639673 BA |
340 | "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n", |
341 | "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n", | |
342 | "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n", | |
343 | "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n", | |
344 | "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n", | |
345 | "\thorizon=3)\n", | |
346 | "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n", | |
347 | "\thorizon=3, same_day=FALSE)" | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
348 | ] |
349 | }, | |
350 | { | |
351 | "cell_type": "code", | |
352 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 353 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
354 | "outputs": [], |
355 | "source": [ | |
55639673 BA |
356 | "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n", |
357 | "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n", | |
358 | "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n", | |
359 | "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n", | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
360 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n", |
361 | "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n", | |
362 | "\n", | |
363 | "# Noir: neighbors_mix, bleu: neighbors_exo, vert: moyenne, rouge: persistence\n", | |
364 | "\n", | |
365 | "i_np = which.min(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)\n", | |
366 | "i_p = which.max(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)" | |
367 | ] | |
368 | }, | |
369 | { | |
370 | "cell_type": "code", | |
371 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 372 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
373 | "outputs": [], |
374 | "source": [ | |
375 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n", | |
376 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
377 | "\n", | |
378 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
379 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
380 | "\n", | |
381 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
382 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n", | |
383 | "\n", | |
384 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n", | |
385 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n", | |
386 | "\n", | |
387 | "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée" | |
388 | ] | |
389 | }, | |
390 | { | |
391 | "cell_type": "code", | |
392 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 393 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
394 | "outputs": [], |
395 | "source": [ | |
396 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
397 | "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
398 | "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
399 | "\n", | |
400 | "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
401 | "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))" | |
402 | ] | |
403 | }, | |
404 | { | |
405 | "cell_type": "code", | |
406 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 407 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
408 | "outputs": [], |
409 | "source": [ | |
410 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
411 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
412 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
413 | "\n", | |
414 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
415 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))" | |
416 | ] | |
417 | }, | |
418 | { | |
419 | "cell_type": "code", | |
420 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 421 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
422 | "outputs": [], |
423 | "source": [ | |
424 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
425 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
426 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
427 | "\n", | |
428 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
429 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n", | |
430 | "\n", | |
431 | "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir" | |
432 | ] | |
433 | }, | |
434 | { | |
435 | "cell_type": "code", | |
436 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 437 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
438 | "outputs": [], |
439 | "source": [ | |
440 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
441 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
442 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
443 | "\n", | |
444 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
d4841a3f | 445 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n", |
ff5df8e3 BA |
446 | "\n", |
447 | "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite" | |
448 | ] | |
449 | }, | |
450 | { | |
451 | "cell_type": "code", | |
452 | "execution_count": null, | |
55639673 | 453 | "metadata": {}, |
ff5df8e3 BA |
454 | "outputs": [], |
455 | "source": [ | |
456 | "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n", | |
457 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n", | |
458 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n", | |
459 | "\n", | |
460 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n", | |
461 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window" | |
462 | ] | |
463 | }, | |
464 | { | |
465 | "cell_type": "markdown", | |
466 | "metadata": {}, | |
467 | "source": [ | |
468 | "\n", | |
469 | "\n", | |
470 | "<h2>Bilan</h2>\n", | |
471 | "\n", | |
472 | "Problème difficile : on ne fait guère mieux qu'une naïve moyenne des lendemains des jours\n", | |
473 | "similaires dans le passé, ce qui n'est pas loin de prédire une série constante égale à la\n", | |
474 | "dernière valeur observée (méthode \"zéro\"). La persistence donne parfois de bons résultats\n", | |
475 | "mais est trop instable (sensibilité à l'argument <code>same_day</code>).\n", | |
476 | "\n", | |
477 | "Comment améliorer la méthode ?" | |
478 | ] | |
479 | } | |
480 | ], | |
481 | "metadata": { | |
482 | "kernelspec": { | |
483 | "display_name": "R", | |
484 | "language": "R", | |
485 | "name": "ir" | |
486 | }, | |
487 | "language_info": { | |
488 | "codemirror_mode": "r", | |
489 | "file_extension": ".r", | |
490 | "mimetype": "text/x-r-source", | |
491 | "name": "R", | |
492 | "pygments_lexer": "r", | |
493 | "version": "3.3.3" | |
494 | } | |
495 | }, | |
496 | "nbformat": 4, | |
497 | "nbformat_minor": 2 | |
498 | } |