X-Git-Url: https://git.auder.net/images/pieces/Cwda/bf.svg?a=blobdiff_plain;f=reports%2Freport.ipynb;h=f0a06d007b84dd633d9399e2c5fcb11ac654e663;hb=ee8b1b4e3c13f8dcf13a2c8da6a3bef1520c8252;hp=bdf1723b33efbe49439b8daf77e265ed59adf487;hpb=d4841a3f15f94ce0520559aed9466c9c3f259d68;p=talweg.git

diff --git a/reports/report.ipynb b/reports/report.ipynb
index bdf1723..f0a06d0 100644
--- a/reports/report.ipynb
+++ b/reports/report.ipynb
@@ -2,7 +2,10 @@
  "cells": [
   {
    "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
+   "metadata": {
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
    "source": [
     "\n",
     "\n",
@@ -30,7 +33,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -38,21 +43,22 @@
     "\n",
     "ts_data = read.csv(system.file(\"extdata\",\"pm10_mesures_H_loc_report.csv\",package=\"talweg\"))\n",
     "exo_data = read.csv(system.file(\"extdata\",\"meteo_extra_noNAs.csv\",package=\"talweg\"))\n",
-    "data = getData(ts_data, exo_data, input_tz = \"Europe/Paris\", working_tz=\"Europe/Paris\", predict_at=7)\n",
+    "# Predict from P+1 to P+H included\n",
+    "H = 17\n",
+    "data = getData(ts_data, exo_data, input_tz = \"GMT\", working_tz=\"GMT\", predict_at=7)\n",
     "\n",
     "indices_ch = seq(as.Date(\"2015-01-18\"),as.Date(\"2015-01-24\"),\"days\")\n",
     "indices_ep = seq(as.Date(\"2015-03-15\"),as.Date(\"2015-03-21\"),\"days\")\n",
-    "indices_np = seq(as.Date(\"2015-04-26\"),as.Date(\"2015-05-02\"),\"days\")\n",
-    "\n",
-    "H = 3 #predict from 2pm to 4pm"
+    "indices_np = seq(as.Date(\"2015-04-26\"),as.Date(\"2015-05-02\"),\"days\")"
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
+   "metadata": {
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
    "source": [
-    "\n",
-    "\n",
     "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Pollution par chauffage</h2>"
    ]
   },
@@ -60,36 +66,90 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\", simtype=\"exo\", horizon=H)\n",
-    "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\", simtype=\"mix\", horizon=H)\n",
-    "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Average\", \"Zero\", horizon=H) #, memory=183)\n",
-    "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, same_day=TRUE)"
+    "reload(\"../pkg\")\n",
+    "#p1 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
+    "#p2 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"endo\")\n",
+    "p3 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"mix\")\n",
+    "p4 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\", horizon=H, simtype=\"mix\")\n",
+    "#p4 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
+    "#p5 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"endo\")\n",
+    "#p6 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"mix\")"
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, H)\n",
-    "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, H)\n",
-    "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, H)\n",
-    "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, H)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n",
-    "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# Noir: neighbors_mix, bleu: neighbors_exo, vert: moyenne, rouge: persistence\n",
-    "\n",
-    "i_np = which.min(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)\n",
-    "i_p = which.max(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)"
+    "getSimilarDaysIndices(1000,10,TRUE,data)"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "as.POSIXlt(data$getTime(1000)[1])"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "#e1 = computeError(data, p1, H)\n",
+    "#e2 = computeError(data, p2, H)\n",
+    "e3 = computeError(data, p3, H)\n",
+    "e4 = computeError(data, p4, H)\n",
+    "#e5 = computeError(data, p5, H)\n",
+    "#e6 = computeError(data, p6, H)\n",
+    "plotError(list(e3,e4), cols=c(1,2))"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "\tfirst_day = 1\n",
+    "params=p3$getParams(3)\n",
+    "\tfilter = (params$indices >= first_day)\n",
+    "\tindices = params$indices[filter]\n",
+    "\tweights = params$weights[filter]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "\n",
+    "\tgaps = sapply(indices, function(i) {\n",
+    "\t\tdata$getSerie(i+1)[1] - tail(data$getSerie(i), 1)\n",
+    "\t})\n",
+    "\tscal_product = weights * gaps\n",
+    "\tnorm_fact = sum( weights[!is.na(scal_product)] )\n",
+    "\tsum(scal_product, na.rm=TRUE) / norm_fact\n"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -99,18 +159,28 @@
     "collapsed": false
    },
    "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "hist(weights)"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
+   "outputs": [],
    "source": [
     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n",
     "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n",
     "\n",
-    "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n",
-    "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n",
-    "\n",
-    "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n",
-    "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n",
+    "plotPredReal(data, p3, 3); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",3))\n",
+    "plotPredReal(data, p3, 5); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",5))\n",
     "\n",
-    "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n",
-    "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n",
+    "plotPredReal(data, p4, 3); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",3))\n",
+    "plotPredReal(data, p4, 5); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",5))\n",
     "\n",
     "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée"
    ]
@@ -119,7 +189,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -135,7 +207,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -151,7 +225,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -169,7 +245,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -187,7 +265,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -201,7 +281,10 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
+   "metadata": {
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
    "source": [
     "\n",
     "\n",
@@ -212,28 +295,36 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\", simtype=\"exo\", horizon=H)\n",
-    "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\", simtype=\"mix\", horizon=H)\n",
-    "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Average\", \"Zero\", horizon=H) #, memory=183)\n",
-    "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, same_day=TRUE)"
+    "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
+    "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n",
+    "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3)\n",
+    "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3, same_day=TRUE)"
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, H)\n",
-    "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, H)\n",
-    "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, H)\n",
-    "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, H)\n",
+    "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n",
+    "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n",
+    "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n",
+    "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n",
     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n",
     "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n",
     "\n",
@@ -247,7 +338,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -270,7 +363,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -286,7 +381,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -302,7 +399,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -320,7 +419,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -338,7 +439,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -352,7 +455,10 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
+   "metadata": {
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
    "source": [
     "\n",
     "\n",
@@ -363,28 +469,36 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\", simtype=\"exo\", horizon=H)\n",
-    "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\", simtype=\"mix\", horizon=H)\n",
-    "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Average\", \"Zero\", horizon=H) #, memory=183)\n",
-    "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, same_day=FALSE)"
+    "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n",
+    "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n",
+    "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3)\n",
+    "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n",
+    "\thorizon=3, same_day=FALSE)"
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, H)\n",
-    "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, H)\n",
-    "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, H)\n",
-    "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, H)\n",
+    "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n",
+    "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n",
+    "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n",
+    "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n",
     "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n",
     "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n",
     "\n",
@@ -398,7 +512,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -421,7 +537,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -437,7 +555,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -453,7 +573,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -471,7 +593,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -489,7 +613,9 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
    "metadata": {
-    "collapsed": false
+    "collapsed": false,
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -503,7 +629,10 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
+   "metadata": {
+    "deletable": true,
+    "editable": true
+   },
    "source": [
     "\n",
     "\n",