Commit | Line | Data |
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ff5df8e3 BA |
1 | { |
2 | "cells": [ | |
3 | { | |
4 | "cell_type": "markdown", | |
5e838b3e BA |
5 | "metadata": { |
6 | "deletable": true, | |
7 | "editable": true | |
8 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
9 | "source": [ |
10 | "\n", | |
11 | "\n", | |
12 | "<h2>Introduction</h2>\n", | |
13 | "\n", | |
14 | "J'ai fait quelques essais dans différentes configurations pour la méthode \"Neighbors\"\n", | |
15 | "(la seule dont on a parlé).<br>Il semble que le mieux soit\n", | |
16 | "\n", | |
17 | " * simtype=\"exo\" ou \"mix\" : similarités exogènes avec/sans endogènes (fenêtre optimisée par VC)\n", | |
18 | " * same_season=FALSE : les indices pour la validation croisée ne tiennent pas compte des saisons\n", | |
19 | " * mix_strategy=\"mult\" : on multiplie les poids (au lieu d'en éteindre)\n", | |
20 | "\n", | |
21 | "J'ai systématiquement comparé à une approche naïve : la moyennes des lendemains des jours\n", | |
22 | "\"similaires\" dans tout le passé ; à chaque fois sans prédiction du saut (sauf pour Neighbors :\n", | |
23 | "prédiction basée sur les poids calculés).\n", | |
24 | "\n", | |
25 | "Ensuite j'affiche les erreurs, quelques courbes prévues/mesurées, quelques filaments puis les\n", | |
26 | "histogrammes de quelques poids. Concernant les graphes de filaments, la moitié gauche du graphe\n", | |
27 | "correspond aux jours similaires au jour courant, tandis que la moitié droite affiche les\n", | |
28 | "lendemains : ce sont donc les voisinages tels qu'utilisés dans l'algorithme.\n", | |
29 | "\n" | |
30 | ] | |
31 | }, | |
32 | { | |
33 | "cell_type": "code", | |
34 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
35 | "metadata": { |
36 | "collapsed": false, | |
37 | "deletable": true, | |
38 | "editable": true | |
39 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
40 | "outputs": [], |
41 | "source": [ | |
42 | "library(talweg)\n", | |
43 | "\n", | |
44 | "ts_data = read.csv(system.file(\"extdata\",\"pm10_mesures_H_loc_report.csv\",package=\"talweg\"))\n", | |
45 | "exo_data = read.csv(system.file(\"extdata\",\"meteo_extra_noNAs.csv\",package=\"talweg\"))\n", | |
5e838b3e BA |
46 | "# Predict from P+1 to P+H included\n", |
47 | "H = 17\n", | |
48 | "data = getData(ts_data, exo_data, input_tz = \"GMT\", working_tz=\"GMT\", predict_at=7)\n", | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
49 | "\n", |
50 | "indices_ch = seq(as.Date(\"2015-01-18\"),as.Date(\"2015-01-24\"),\"days\")\n", | |
51 | "indices_ep = seq(as.Date(\"2015-03-15\"),as.Date(\"2015-03-21\"),\"days\")\n", | |
5e838b3e | 52 | "indices_np = seq(as.Date(\"2015-04-26\"),as.Date(\"2015-05-02\"),\"days\")" |
ff5df8e3 BA |
53 | ] |
54 | }, | |
55 | { | |
56 | "cell_type": "markdown", | |
5e838b3e BA |
57 | "metadata": { |
58 | "deletable": true, | |
59 | "editable": true | |
60 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
61 | "source": [ |
62 | "\n", | |
63 | "\n", | |
64 | "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Pollution par chauffage</h2>" | |
65 | ] | |
66 | }, | |
67 | { | |
68 | "cell_type": "code", | |
69 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
70 | "metadata": { |
71 | "collapsed": false, | |
72 | "deletable": true, | |
73 | "editable": true | |
74 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
75 | "outputs": [], |
76 | "source": [ | |
5e838b3e BA |
77 | "reload(\"../pkg\")\n", |
78 | "p1 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"exo\")\n", | |
79 | "p2 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"endo\")\n", | |
80 | "p3 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"mix\")\n", | |
81 | "p4 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"exo\")\n", | |
82 | "p5 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"endo\")\n", | |
83 | "p6 = computeForecast(data, indices_ch, \"Neighbors2\", \"Zero\", horizon=H, simtype=\"mix\")\n" | |
84 | ] | |
85 | }, | |
86 | { | |
87 | "cell_type": "code", | |
88 | "execution_count": null, | |
89 | "metadata": { | |
90 | "collapsed": false | |
91 | }, | |
92 | "outputs": [], | |
93 | "source": [ | |
94 | "e1 = computeError(data, p1, H)\n", | |
95 | "e2 = computeError(data, p2, H)\n", | |
96 | "e3 = computeError(data, p3, H)\n", | |
97 | "e4 = computeError(data, p4, H)\n", | |
98 | "e5 = computeError(data, p5, H)\n", | |
99 | "e6 = computeError(data, p6, H)\n", | |
100 | "plotError(list(e1,e2,e3,e4,e5,e6), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4,5,6))" | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
101 | ] |
102 | }, | |
103 | { | |
104 | "cell_type": "code", | |
105 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
106 | "metadata": { |
107 | "collapsed": false, | |
108 | "deletable": true, | |
109 | "editable": true | |
110 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
111 | "outputs": [], |
112 | "source": [ | |
55639673 BA |
113 | "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n", |
114 | "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n", | |
115 | "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n", | |
116 | "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n", | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
117 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n", |
118 | "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n", | |
119 | "\n", | |
120 | "# Noir: neighbors_mix, bleu: neighbors_exo, vert: moyenne, rouge: persistence\n", | |
121 | "\n", | |
122 | "i_np = which.min(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)\n", | |
123 | "i_p = which.max(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)" | |
124 | ] | |
125 | }, | |
126 | { | |
127 | "cell_type": "code", | |
128 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
129 | "metadata": { |
130 | "collapsed": false, | |
131 | "deletable": true, | |
132 | "editable": true | |
133 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
134 | "outputs": [], |
135 | "source": [ | |
136 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n", | |
137 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
138 | "\n", | |
139 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
140 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
141 | "\n", | |
142 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
143 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n", | |
144 | "\n", | |
145 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n", | |
146 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n", | |
147 | "\n", | |
148 | "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée" | |
149 | ] | |
150 | }, | |
151 | { | |
152 | "cell_type": "code", | |
153 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
154 | "metadata": { |
155 | "collapsed": false, | |
156 | "deletable": true, | |
157 | "editable": true | |
158 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
159 | "outputs": [], |
160 | "source": [ | |
161 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
162 | "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
163 | "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
164 | "\n", | |
165 | "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
166 | "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))" | |
167 | ] | |
168 | }, | |
169 | { | |
170 | "cell_type": "code", | |
171 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
172 | "metadata": { |
173 | "collapsed": false, | |
174 | "deletable": true, | |
175 | "editable": true | |
176 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
177 | "outputs": [], |
178 | "source": [ | |
179 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
180 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
181 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
182 | "\n", | |
183 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
184 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))" | |
185 | ] | |
186 | }, | |
187 | { | |
188 | "cell_type": "code", | |
189 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
190 | "metadata": { |
191 | "collapsed": false, | |
192 | "deletable": true, | |
193 | "editable": true | |
194 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
195 | "outputs": [], |
196 | "source": [ | |
197 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
198 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
199 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
200 | "\n", | |
201 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
202 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n", | |
203 | "\n", | |
204 | "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir" | |
205 | ] | |
206 | }, | |
207 | { | |
208 | "cell_type": "code", | |
209 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
210 | "metadata": { |
211 | "collapsed": false, | |
212 | "deletable": true, | |
213 | "editable": true | |
214 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
215 | "outputs": [], |
216 | "source": [ | |
217 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
218 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
219 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
220 | "\n", | |
221 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
d4841a3f | 222 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n", |
ff5df8e3 BA |
223 | "\n", |
224 | "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite" | |
225 | ] | |
226 | }, | |
227 | { | |
228 | "cell_type": "code", | |
229 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
230 | "metadata": { |
231 | "collapsed": false, | |
232 | "deletable": true, | |
233 | "editable": true | |
234 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
235 | "outputs": [], |
236 | "source": [ | |
237 | "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n", | |
238 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n", | |
239 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n", | |
240 | "\n", | |
241 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n", | |
242 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window" | |
243 | ] | |
244 | }, | |
245 | { | |
246 | "cell_type": "markdown", | |
5e838b3e BA |
247 | "metadata": { |
248 | "deletable": true, | |
249 | "editable": true | |
250 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
251 | "source": [ |
252 | "\n", | |
253 | "\n", | |
254 | "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Pollution par épandage</h2>" | |
255 | ] | |
256 | }, | |
257 | { | |
258 | "cell_type": "code", | |
259 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
260 | "metadata": { |
261 | "collapsed": false, | |
262 | "deletable": true, | |
263 | "editable": true | |
264 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
265 | "outputs": [], |
266 | "source": [ | |
55639673 BA |
267 | "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n", |
268 | "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n", | |
269 | "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n", | |
270 | "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n", | |
271 | "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n", | |
272 | "\thorizon=3)\n", | |
273 | "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_ep, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n", | |
274 | "\thorizon=3, same_day=TRUE)" | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
275 | ] |
276 | }, | |
277 | { | |
278 | "cell_type": "code", | |
279 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
280 | "metadata": { |
281 | "collapsed": false, | |
282 | "deletable": true, | |
283 | "editable": true | |
284 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
285 | "outputs": [], |
286 | "source": [ | |
55639673 BA |
287 | "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n", |
288 | "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n", | |
289 | "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n", | |
290 | "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n", | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
291 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n", |
292 | "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n", | |
293 | "\n", | |
294 | "# Noir: neighbors_mix, bleu: neighbors_exo, vert: moyenne, rouge: persistence\n", | |
295 | "\n", | |
296 | "i_np = which.min(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)\n", | |
297 | "i_p = which.max(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)" | |
298 | ] | |
299 | }, | |
300 | { | |
301 | "cell_type": "code", | |
302 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
303 | "metadata": { |
304 | "collapsed": false, | |
305 | "deletable": true, | |
306 | "editable": true | |
307 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
308 | "outputs": [], |
309 | "source": [ | |
310 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n", | |
311 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
312 | "\n", | |
313 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
314 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
315 | "\n", | |
316 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
317 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n", | |
318 | "\n", | |
319 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n", | |
320 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n", | |
321 | "\n", | |
322 | "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée" | |
323 | ] | |
324 | }, | |
325 | { | |
326 | "cell_type": "code", | |
327 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
328 | "metadata": { |
329 | "collapsed": false, | |
330 | "deletable": true, | |
331 | "editable": true | |
332 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
333 | "outputs": [], |
334 | "source": [ | |
335 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
336 | "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
337 | "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
338 | "\n", | |
339 | "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
340 | "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))" | |
341 | ] | |
342 | }, | |
343 | { | |
344 | "cell_type": "code", | |
345 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
346 | "metadata": { |
347 | "collapsed": false, | |
348 | "deletable": true, | |
349 | "editable": true | |
350 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
351 | "outputs": [], |
352 | "source": [ | |
353 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
354 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
355 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
356 | "\n", | |
357 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
358 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))" | |
359 | ] | |
360 | }, | |
361 | { | |
362 | "cell_type": "code", | |
363 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
364 | "metadata": { |
365 | "collapsed": false, | |
366 | "deletable": true, | |
367 | "editable": true | |
368 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
369 | "outputs": [], |
370 | "source": [ | |
371 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
372 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
373 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
374 | "\n", | |
375 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
376 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n", | |
377 | "\n", | |
378 | "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir" | |
379 | ] | |
380 | }, | |
381 | { | |
382 | "cell_type": "code", | |
383 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
384 | "metadata": { |
385 | "collapsed": false, | |
386 | "deletable": true, | |
387 | "editable": true | |
388 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
389 | "outputs": [], |
390 | "source": [ | |
391 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
392 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
393 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
394 | "\n", | |
395 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
d4841a3f | 396 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n", |
ff5df8e3 BA |
397 | "\n", |
398 | "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite" | |
399 | ] | |
400 | }, | |
401 | { | |
402 | "cell_type": "code", | |
403 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
404 | "metadata": { |
405 | "collapsed": false, | |
406 | "deletable": true, | |
407 | "editable": true | |
408 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
409 | "outputs": [], |
410 | "source": [ | |
411 | "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n", | |
412 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n", | |
413 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n", | |
414 | "\n", | |
415 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n", | |
416 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window" | |
417 | ] | |
418 | }, | |
419 | { | |
420 | "cell_type": "markdown", | |
5e838b3e BA |
421 | "metadata": { |
422 | "deletable": true, | |
423 | "editable": true | |
424 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
425 | "source": [ |
426 | "\n", | |
427 | "\n", | |
428 | "<h2 style=\"color:blue;font-size:2em\">Semaine non polluée</h2>" | |
429 | ] | |
430 | }, | |
431 | { | |
432 | "cell_type": "code", | |
433 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
434 | "metadata": { |
435 | "collapsed": false, | |
436 | "deletable": true, | |
437 | "editable": true | |
438 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
439 | "outputs": [], |
440 | "source": [ | |
55639673 BA |
441 | "p_nn_exo = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n", |
442 | "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"exo\")\n", | |
443 | "p_nn_mix = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Neighbors\", \"Neighbors\",\n", | |
444 | "\thorizon=3, simtype=\"mix\")\n", | |
445 | "p_az = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Average\", \"Zero\",\n", | |
446 | "\thorizon=3)\n", | |
447 | "p_pz = computeForecast(data, indices_np, \"Persistence\", \"Zero\",\n", | |
448 | "\thorizon=3, same_day=FALSE)" | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
449 | ] |
450 | }, | |
451 | { | |
452 | "cell_type": "code", | |
453 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
454 | "metadata": { |
455 | "collapsed": false, | |
456 | "deletable": true, | |
457 | "editable": true | |
458 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
459 | "outputs": [], |
460 | "source": [ | |
55639673 BA |
461 | "e_nn_exo = computeError(data, p_nn_exo, 3)\n", |
462 | "e_nn_mix = computeError(data, p_nn_mix, 3)\n", | |
463 | "e_az = computeError(data, p_az, 3)\n", | |
464 | "e_pz = computeError(data, p_pz, 3)\n", | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
465 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=7)\n", |
466 | "plotError(list(e_nn_mix, e_pz, e_az, e_nn_exo), cols=c(1,2,colors()[258], 4))\n", | |
467 | "\n", | |
468 | "# Noir: neighbors_mix, bleu: neighbors_exo, vert: moyenne, rouge: persistence\n", | |
469 | "\n", | |
470 | "i_np = which.min(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)\n", | |
471 | "i_p = which.max(e_nn_exo$abs$indices)" | |
472 | ] | |
473 | }, | |
474 | { | |
475 | "cell_type": "code", | |
476 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
477 | "metadata": { |
478 | "collapsed": false, | |
479 | "deletable": true, | |
480 | "editable": true | |
481 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
482 | "outputs": [], |
483 | "source": [ | |
484 | "options(repr.plot.width=9, repr.plot.height=4)\n", | |
485 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
486 | "\n", | |
487 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
488 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
489 | "\n", | |
490 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
491 | "plotPredReal(data, p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal nn mix day\",i_p))\n", | |
492 | "\n", | |
493 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_np); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_np))\n", | |
494 | "plotPredReal(data, p_az, i_p); title(paste(\"PredReal az day\",i_p))\n", | |
495 | "\n", | |
496 | "# Bleu: prévue, noir: réalisée" | |
497 | ] | |
498 | }, | |
499 | { | |
500 | "cell_type": "code", | |
501 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
502 | "metadata": { |
503 | "collapsed": false, | |
504 | "deletable": true, | |
505 | "editable": true | |
506 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
507 | "outputs": [], |
508 | "source": [ | |
509 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
510 | "f_np_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
511 | "f_p_exo = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_exo, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
512 | "\n", | |
513 | "f_np_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_np, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
514 | "f_p_mix = computeFilaments(data, p_nn_mix, i_p, plot=TRUE); title(paste(\"Filaments nn mix day\",i_p))" | |
515 | ] | |
516 | }, | |
517 | { | |
518 | "cell_type": "code", | |
519 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
520 | "metadata": { |
521 | "collapsed": false, | |
522 | "deletable": true, | |
523 | "editable": true | |
524 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
525 | "outputs": [], |
526 | "source": [ | |
527 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
528 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
529 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"FilBox nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
530 | "\n", | |
531 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
532 | "plotFilamentsBox(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"FilBox nn mix day\",i_p))" | |
533 | ] | |
534 | }, | |
535 | { | |
536 | "cell_type": "code", | |
537 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
538 | "metadata": { |
539 | "collapsed": false, | |
540 | "deletable": true, | |
541 | "editable": true | |
542 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
543 | "outputs": [], |
544 | "source": [ | |
545 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
546 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
547 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_exo); title(paste(\"StdDev nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
548 | "\n", | |
549 | "plotRelVar(data, f_np_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
550 | "plotRelVar(data, f_p_mix); title(paste(\"StdDev nn mix day\",i_p))\n", | |
551 | "\n", | |
552 | "# Variabilité globale en rouge ; sur les 60 voisins (+ lendemains) en noir" | |
553 | ] | |
554 | }, | |
555 | { | |
556 | "cell_type": "code", | |
557 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
558 | "metadata": { |
559 | "collapsed": false, | |
560 | "deletable": true, | |
561 | "editable": true | |
562 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
563 | "outputs": [], |
564 | "source": [ | |
565 | "par(mfrow=c(1,2))\n", | |
566 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_np))\n", | |
567 | "plotSimils(p_nn_exo, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn exo day\",i_p))\n", | |
568 | "\n", | |
569 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_np); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_np))\n", | |
d4841a3f | 570 | "plotSimils(p_nn_mix, i_p); title(paste(\"Weights nn mix day\",i_p))\n", |
ff5df8e3 BA |
571 | "\n", |
572 | "# - pollué à gauche, + pollué à droite" | |
573 | ] | |
574 | }, | |
575 | { | |
576 | "cell_type": "code", | |
577 | "execution_count": null, | |
5e838b3e BA |
578 | "metadata": { |
579 | "collapsed": false, | |
580 | "deletable": true, | |
581 | "editable": true | |
582 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
583 | "outputs": [], |
584 | "source": [ | |
585 | "# Fenêtres sélectionnées dans ]0,10] / endo à gauche, exo à droite\n", | |
586 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_np)$window\n", | |
587 | "p_nn_exo$getParams(i_p)$window\n", | |
588 | "\n", | |
589 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_np)$window\n", | |
590 | "p_nn_mix$getParams(i_p)$window" | |
591 | ] | |
592 | }, | |
593 | { | |
594 | "cell_type": "markdown", | |
5e838b3e BA |
595 | "metadata": { |
596 | "deletable": true, | |
597 | "editable": true | |
598 | }, | |
ff5df8e3 BA |
599 | "source": [ |
600 | "\n", | |
601 | "\n", | |
602 | "<h2>Bilan</h2>\n", | |
603 | "\n", | |
604 | "Problème difficile : on ne fait guère mieux qu'une naïve moyenne des lendemains des jours\n", | |
605 | "similaires dans le passé, ce qui n'est pas loin de prédire une série constante égale à la\n", | |
606 | "dernière valeur observée (méthode \"zéro\"). La persistence donne parfois de bons résultats\n", | |
607 | "mais est trop instable (sensibilité à l'argument <code>same_day</code>).\n", | |
608 | "\n", | |
609 | "Comment améliorer la méthode ?" | |
610 | ] | |
611 | } | |
612 | ], | |
613 | "metadata": { | |
614 | "kernelspec": { | |
615 | "display_name": "R", | |
616 | "language": "R", | |
617 | "name": "ir" | |
618 | }, | |
619 | "language_info": { | |
620 | "codemirror_mode": "r", | |
621 | "file_extension": ".r", | |
622 | "mimetype": "text/x-r-source", | |
623 | "name": "R", | |
624 | "pygments_lexer": "r", | |
625 | "version": "3.3.3" | |
626 | } | |
627 | }, | |
628 | "nbformat": 4, | |
629 | "nbformat_minor": 2 | |
630 | } |