X-Git-Url: https://git.auder.net/?p=talweg.git;a=blobdiff_plain;f=pkg%2FR%2FF_Neighbors.R;h=5b2c8990a850d2dff0d75c23d67815e7393ccd07;hp=ac0df0414c7f79ef671d9e8dd62b4fe13286b2b7;hb=5e838b3e17465c376ca075b766cf2543c82e9864;hpb=25b75559e2d9bf84e2de35b851d93fefdae36e17

diff --git a/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R b/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R
index ac0df04..5b2c899 100644
--- a/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R
+++ b/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R
@@ -4,67 +4,91 @@
 #'
 #' Predict tomorrow as a weighted combination of "futures of the past" days.
 #' Inherits \code{\link{Forecaster}}
+#'
 NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster",
-	inherit = "Forecaster",
+	inherit = Forecaster,
 
 	public = list(
-		predictShape = function(today, memory, horizon, ...)
+		predictShape = function(data, today, memory, horizon, ...)
 		{
 			# (re)initialize computed parameters
-			params <<- list("weights"=NA, "indices"=NA, "window"=NA)
+			private$.params <- list("weights"=NA, "indices"=NA, "window"=NA)
+
+			# Do not forecast on days with NAs (TODO: softer condition...)
+			if (any(is.na(data$getCenteredSerie(today))))
+				return (NA)
+
+			# Determine indices of no-NAs days followed by no-NAs tomorrows
+			fdays = getNoNA2(data, max(today-memory,1), today-1)
 
 			# Get optional args
 			simtype = ifelse(hasArg("simtype"), list(...)$simtype, "mix") #or "endo", or "exo"
 			kernel = ifelse(hasArg("kernel"), list(...)$kernel, "Gauss") #or "Epan"
 			if (hasArg(h_window))
-				return (.predictShapeAux(fdays,today,horizon,list(...)$h_window,kernel,simtype,TRUE))
-
-			# Determine indices of no-NAs days followed by no-NAs tomorrows
-			first_day = max(today - memory, 1)
-			fdays = (first_day:(today-1))[ sapply(first_day:(today-1), function(i) {
-				!any(is.na(data$getSerie(i)) | is.na(data$getSerie(i+1)))
-			}) ]
+			{
+				return ( private$.predictShapeAux(data,
+					fdays, today, horizon, list(...)$h_window, kernel, simtype, TRUE) )
+			}
 
 			# Indices of similar days for cross-validation; TODO: 45 = magic number
 			sdays = getSimilarDaysIndices(today, limit=45, same_season=FALSE)
 
+			cv_days = intersect(fdays,sdays)
+			# Limit to 20 most recent matching days (TODO: 20 == magic number)
+			cv_days = sort(cv_days,decreasing=TRUE)[1:min(20,length(cv_days))]
+
 			# Function to optimize h : h |--> sum of prediction errors on last 45 "similar" days
 			errorOnLastNdays = function(h, kernel, simtype)
 			{
 				error = 0
 				nb_jours = 0
-				for (i in intersect(fdays,sdays))
+				for (i in seq_along(cv_days))
 				{
 					# mix_strategy is never used here (simtype != "mix"), therefore left blank
-					prediction = .predictShapeAux(fdays, i, horizon, h, kernel, simtype, FALSE)
+					prediction = private$.predictShapeAux(data,
+						fdays, cv_days[i], horizon, h, kernel, simtype, FALSE)
 					if (!is.na(prediction[1]))
 					{
 						nb_jours = nb_jours + 1
-						error = error + mean((data$getCenteredSerie(i+1)[1:horizon] - prediction)^2)
+						error = error +
+							mean((data$getCenteredSerie(cv_days[i]+1)[1:horizon] - prediction)^2)
 					}
 				}
 				return (error / nb_jours)
 			}
 
 			if (simtype != "endo")
-				h_best_exo = optimize(errorOnLastNdays, c(0,10), kernel=kernel, simtype="exo")$minimum
+			{
+				h_best_exo = optimize(
+					errorOnLastNdays, c(0,10), kernel=kernel, simtype="exo")$minimum
+			}
 			if (simtype != "exo")
-				h_best_endo = optimize(errorOnLastNdays, c(0,10), kernel=kernel, simtype="endo")$minimum
+			{
+				h_best_endo = optimize(
+					errorOnLastNdays, c(0,10), kernel=kernel, simtype="endo")$minimum
+			}
 
 			if (simtype == "endo")
-				return (.predictShapeAux(fdays, today, horizon, h_best_endo, kernel, "endo", TRUE))
+			{
+				return (private$.predictShapeAux(data,
+					fdays, today, horizon, h_best_endo, kernel, "endo", TRUE))
+			}
 			if (simtype == "exo")
-				return (.predictShapeAux(fdays, today, horizon, h_best_exo,  kernel, "exo",  TRUE))
+			{
+				return (private$.predictShapeAux(data,
+					fdays, today, horizon, h_best_exo, kernel, "exo", TRUE))
+			}
 			if (simtype == "mix")
 			{
 				h_best_mix = c(h_best_endo,h_best_exo)
-				return (.predictShapeAux(fdays, today, horizon, h_best_mix,  kernel, "mix",  TRUE))
+				return(private$.predictShapeAux(data,
+					fdays, today, horizon, h_best_mix, kernel, "mix", TRUE))
 			}
 		}
 	),
 	private = list(
 		# Precondition: "today" is full (no NAs)
-		.predictShapeAux = function(fdays, today, horizon, h, kernel, simtype, final_call)
+		.predictShapeAux = function(data, fdays, today, horizon, h, kernel, simtype, final_call)
 		{
 			fdays = fdays[ fdays < today ]
 			# TODO: 3 = magic number
@@ -76,22 +100,24 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster",
 				h_endo = ifelse(simtype=="mix", h[1], h)
 
 				# Distances from last observed day to days in the past
-				distances2 = rep(NA, length(fdays))
-				for (i in seq_along(fdays))
-				{
-					delta = data$getCenteredSerie(today) - data$getCenteredSerie(fdays[i])
-					# Require at least half of non-NA common values to compute the distance
-					if (sum(is.na(delta)) <= 0) #length(delta)/2)
-						distances2[i] = mean(delta^2) #, na.rm=TRUE)
-				}
+				serieToday = data$getSerie(today)
+				distances2 = sapply(fdays, function(i) {
+					delta = serieToday - data$getSerie(i)
+					mean(delta^2)
+				})
 
 				sd_dist = sd(distances2)
 				if (sd_dist < .Machine$double.eps)
+				{
+#					warning("All computed distances are very close: stdev too small")
 					sd_dist = 1 #mostly for tests... FIXME:
+				}
 				simils_endo =
 					if (kernel=="Gauss")
 						exp(-distances2/(sd_dist*h_endo^2))
-					else { #Epanechnikov
+					else
+					{
+						# Epanechnikov
 						u = 1 - distances2/(sd_dist*h_endo^2)
 						u[abs(u)>1] = 0.
 						u
@@ -111,18 +137,23 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster",
 				sigma_inv = solve(sigma) #TODO: use pseudo-inverse if needed?
 
 				# Distances from last observed day to days in the past
-				distances2 = rep(NA, nrow(M)-1)
-				for (i in 2:nrow(M))
-				{
-					delta = M[1,] - M[i,]
-					distances2[i-1] = delta %*% sigma_inv %*% delta
-				}
+				distances2 = sapply(seq_along(fdays), function(i) {
+					delta = M[1,] - M[i+1,]
+					delta %*% sigma_inv %*% delta
+				})
 
 				sd_dist = sd(distances2)
+				if (sd_dist < .Machine$double.eps)
+				{
+#					warning("All computed distances are very close: stdev too small")
+					sd_dist = 1 #mostly for tests... FIXME:
+				}
 				simils_exo =
 					if (kernel=="Gauss")
 						exp(-distances2/(sd_dist*h_exo^2))
-					else { #Epanechnikov
+					else
+					{
+						# Epanechnikov
 						u = 1 - distances2/(sd_dist*h_exo^2)
 						u[abs(u)>1] = 0.
 						u
@@ -138,22 +169,21 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster",
 					simils_endo * simils_exo
 
 			prediction = rep(0, horizon)
-			for (i in seq_along(fdays_indices))
-				prediction = prediction + similarities[i] * data$getSerie(fdays_indices[i]+1)[1:horizon]
+			for (i in seq_along(fdays))
+				prediction = prediction + similarities[i] * data$getCenteredSerie(fdays[i]+1)[1:horizon]
 			prediction = prediction / sum(similarities, na.rm=TRUE)
 
 			if (final_call)
 			{
-				params$weights <<- similarities
-				params$indices <<- fdays_indices
-				params$window <<-
-					if (simtype=="endo") {
+				private$.params$weights <- similarities
+				private$.params$indices <- fdays
+				private$.params$window <-
+					if (simtype=="endo")
 						h_endo
-					} else if (simtype=="exo") {
+					else if (simtype=="exo")
 						h_exo
-					} else { #mix
+					else #mix
 						c(h_endo,h_exo)
-					}
 			}
 
 			return (prediction)