X-Git-Url: https://git.auder.net/?p=talweg.git;a=blobdiff_plain;f=pkg%2FR%2FF_Neighbors.R;h=5b2c8990a850d2dff0d75c23d67815e7393ccd07;hp=600c5c8ceeaae272a824a259c36f5075662c4b78;hb=5e838b3e17465c376ca075b766cf2543c82e9864;hpb=9db234c56c330bb3f652718c5ee1eb16bc1f6fc7 diff --git a/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R b/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R index 600c5c8..5b2c899 100644 --- a/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R +++ b/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R @@ -33,21 +33,25 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", # Indices of similar days for cross-validation; TODO: 45 = magic number sdays = getSimilarDaysIndices(today, limit=45, same_season=FALSE) + cv_days = intersect(fdays,sdays) + # Limit to 20 most recent matching days (TODO: 20 == magic number) + cv_days = sort(cv_days,decreasing=TRUE)[1:min(20,length(cv_days))] + # Function to optimize h : h |--> sum of prediction errors on last 45 "similar" days errorOnLastNdays = function(h, kernel, simtype) { error = 0 nb_jours = 0 - for (i in intersect(fdays,sdays)) + for (i in seq_along(cv_days)) { # mix_strategy is never used here (simtype != "mix"), therefore left blank prediction = private$.predictShapeAux(data, - fdays, i, horizon, h, kernel, simtype, FALSE) + fdays, cv_days[i], horizon, h, kernel, simtype, FALSE) if (!is.na(prediction[1])) { nb_jours = nb_jours + 1 error = error + - mean((data$getCenteredSerie(i+1)[1:horizon] - prediction)^2) + mean((data$getCenteredSerie(cv_days[i]+1)[1:horizon] - prediction)^2) } } return (error / nb_jours) @@ -96,14 +100,11 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", h_endo = ifelse(simtype=="mix", h[1], h) # Distances from last observed day to days in the past - distances2 = rep(NA, length(fdays)) - for (i in seq_along(fdays)) - { - delta = data$getCenteredSerie(today) - data$getCenteredSerie(fdays[i]) - # Require at least half of non-NA common values to compute the distance - if ( !any( is.na(delta) ) ) - distances2[i] = mean(delta^2) - Centered} + serieToday = data$getSerie(today) + distances2 = sapply(fdays, function(i) { + delta = serieToday - data$getSerie(i) + mean(delta^2) + }) sd_dist = sd(distances2) if (sd_dist < .Machine$double.eps) @@ -136,12 +137,10 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", sigma_inv = solve(sigma) #TODO: use pseudo-inverse if needed? # Distances from last observed day to days in the past - distances2 = rep(NA, nrow(M)-1) - for (i in 2:nrow(M)) - { - delta = M[1,] - M[i,] - distances2[i-1] = delta %*% sigma_inv %*% delta - } + distances2 = sapply(seq_along(fdays), function(i) { + delta = M[1,] - M[i+1,] + delta %*% sigma_inv %*% delta + }) sd_dist = sd(distances2) if (sd_dist < .Machine$double.eps)