X-Git-Url: https://git.auder.net/?a=blobdiff_plain;f=pkg%2FR%2FF_Neighbors.R;h=c8a33554f92fef75dc327fb526faea9027b4b535;hb=6774e53de7b8bdac191d6203a380ad46c3b4d9ba;hp=5b2c8990a850d2dff0d75c23d67815e7393ccd07;hpb=5e838b3e17465c376ca075b766cf2543c82e9864;p=talweg.git diff --git a/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R b/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R index 5b2c899..c8a3355 100644 --- a/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R +++ b/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R @@ -30,12 +30,8 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", fdays, today, horizon, list(...)$h_window, kernel, simtype, TRUE) ) } - # Indices of similar days for cross-validation; TODO: 45 = magic number - sdays = getSimilarDaysIndices(today, limit=45, same_season=FALSE) - - cv_days = intersect(fdays,sdays) - # Limit to 20 most recent matching days (TODO: 20 == magic number) - cv_days = sort(cv_days,decreasing=TRUE)[1:min(20,length(cv_days))] + # Indices of similar days for cross-validation; TODO: 20 = magic number + cv_days = getSimilarDaysIndices(today, data, limit=20, same_season=FALSE, days_in=fdays) # Function to optimize h : h |--> sum of prediction errors on last 45 "similar" days errorOnLastNdays = function(h, kernel, simtype) @@ -134,7 +130,12 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", M[i+1,] = c( data$getLevel(fdays[i]), as.double(data$getExo(fdays[i])) ) sigma = cov(M) #NOTE: robust covariance is way too slow - sigma_inv = solve(sigma) #TODO: use pseudo-inverse if needed? + # TODO: 10 == magic number; more robust way == det, or always ginv() + sigma_inv = + if (length(fdays) > 10) + solve(sigma) + else + MASS::ginv(sigma) # Distances from last observed day to days in the past distances2 = sapply(seq_along(fdays), function(i) { @@ -143,7 +144,7 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", }) sd_dist = sd(distances2) - if (sd_dist < .Machine$double.eps) + if (sd_dist < .25 * sqrt(.Machine$double.eps)) { # warning("All computed distances are very close: stdev too small") sd_dist = 1 #mostly for tests... FIXME: