X-Git-Url: https://git.auder.net/?a=blobdiff_plain;f=pkg%2FR%2FF_Neighbors.R;h=a3d44a3916cc8b27195ddd693fc35f6dbcceb2b1;hb=546b0cb65870355a2a2c3705c91418570499d3a6;hp=7a3fbe525352405837e55c1fe7b69350768257ed;hpb=af3b84f4cacade7d83221ca0249b546c50ddf340;p=talweg.git diff --git a/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R b/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R index 7a3fbe5..a3d44a3 100644 --- a/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R +++ b/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R @@ -4,24 +4,29 @@ #' #' Predict tomorrow as a weighted combination of "futures of the past" days. #' Inherits \code{\link{Forecaster}} +#' NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", inherit = Forecaster, public = list( - predictShape = function(today, memory, horizon, ...) + predictShape = function(data, today, memory, horizon, ...) { # (re)initialize computed parameters private$.params <- list("weights"=NA, "indices"=NA, "window"=NA) + # Do not forecast on days with NAs (TODO: softer condition...) + if (any(is.na(data$getCenteredSerie(today)))) + return (NA) + # Determine indices of no-NAs days followed by no-NAs tomorrows - fdays = private$.data$getCoupleDays(max(today-memory,1), today-1) + fdays = getNoNA2(data, max(today-memory,1), today-1) # Get optional args simtype = ifelse(hasArg("simtype"), list(...)$simtype, "mix") #or "endo", or "exo" kernel = ifelse(hasArg("kernel"), list(...)$kernel, "Gauss") #or "Epan" if (hasArg(h_window)) { - return ( private$.predictShapeAux( + return ( private$.predictShapeAux(data, fdays, today, horizon, list(...)$h_window, kernel, simtype, TRUE) ) } @@ -36,12 +41,13 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", for (i in intersect(fdays,sdays)) { # mix_strategy is never used here (simtype != "mix"), therefore left blank - prediction = private$.predictShapeAux(fdays, i, horizon, h, kernel, simtype, FALSE) + prediction = private$.predictShapeAux(data, + fdays, i, horizon, h, kernel, simtype, FALSE) if (!is.na(prediction[1])) { nb_jours = nb_jours + 1 error = error + - mean((private$.data$getCenteredSerie(i+1)[1:horizon] - prediction)^2) + mean((data$getCenteredSerie(i+1)[1:horizon] - prediction)^2) } } return (error / nb_jours) @@ -60,33 +66,31 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", if (simtype == "endo") { - return (private$.predictShapeAux( + return (private$.predictShapeAux(data, fdays, today, horizon, h_best_endo, kernel, "endo", TRUE)) } if (simtype == "exo") { - return (private$.predictShapeAux( + return (private$.predictShapeAux(data, fdays, today, horizon, h_best_exo, kernel, "exo", TRUE)) } if (simtype == "mix") { h_best_mix = c(h_best_endo,h_best_exo) - return(private$.predictShapeAux( + return(private$.predictShapeAux(data, fdays, today, horizon, h_best_mix, kernel, "mix", TRUE)) } } ), private = list( # Precondition: "today" is full (no NAs) - .predictShapeAux = function(fdays, today, horizon, h, kernel, simtype, final_call) + .predictShapeAux = function(data, fdays, today, horizon, h, kernel, simtype, final_call) { fdays = fdays[ fdays < today ] # TODO: 3 = magic number if (length(fdays) < 3) return (NA) - data = private$.data #shorthand - if (simtype != "exo") { h_endo = ifelse(simtype=="mix", h[1], h) @@ -97,17 +101,22 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", { delta = data$getCenteredSerie(today) - data$getCenteredSerie(fdays[i]) # Require at least half of non-NA common values to compute the distance - if (sum(is.na(delta)) <= 0) #length(delta)/2) - distances2[i] = mean(delta^2) #, na.rm=TRUE) + if ( !any( is.na(delta) ) ) + distances2[i] = mean(delta^2) } sd_dist = sd(distances2) if (sd_dist < .Machine$double.eps) + { + warning("All computed distances are very close: stdev too small") sd_dist = 1 #mostly for tests... FIXME: + } simils_endo = if (kernel=="Gauss") exp(-distances2/(sd_dist*h_endo^2)) - else { #Epanechnikov + else + { + # Epanechnikov u = 1 - distances2/(sd_dist*h_endo^2) u[abs(u)>1] = 0. u @@ -135,10 +144,17 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", } sd_dist = sd(distances2) + if (sd_dist < .Machine$double.eps) + { + warning("All computed distances are very close: stdev too small") + sd_dist = 1 #mostly for tests... FIXME: + } simils_exo = if (kernel=="Gauss") exp(-distances2/(sd_dist*h_exo^2)) - else { #Epanechnikov + else + { + # Epanechnikov u = 1 - distances2/(sd_dist*h_exo^2) u[abs(u)>1] = 0. u @@ -163,13 +179,12 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", private$.params$weights <- similarities private$.params$indices <- fdays private$.params$window <- - if (simtype=="endo") { + if (simtype=="endo") h_endo - } else if (simtype=="exo") { + else if (simtype=="exo") h_exo - } else { #mix + else #mix c(h_endo,h_exo) - } } return (prediction)