X-Git-Url: https://git.auder.net/?a=blobdiff_plain;f=pkg%2FR%2FF_Neighbors.R;h=17fdd58d7a19b3e448e92f37e2e8d192a824e261;hb=9b9bb2d490e356ff0393aec66b137cff0a64803d;hp=d63c177f952b0e7aad8172ddcca5dd8d71513477;hpb=5037d6d061b86f7bc4baaf5c4614c6da9c9eaa1b;p=talweg.git diff --git a/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R b/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R index d63c177..17fdd58 100644 --- a/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R +++ b/pkg/R/F_Neighbors.R @@ -1,27 +1,23 @@ #' Neighbors Forecaster #' -#' Predict next serie as a weighted combination of "futures of the past" days, -#' where days in the past are chosen and weighted according to some similarity measures. +#' Predict next serie as a weighted combination of curves observed on "similar" days in +#' the past (and future if 'opera'=FALSE); the nature of the similarity is controlled by +#' the options 'simtype' and 'local' (see below). #' -#' The main method is \code{predictShape()}, taking arguments data, today, memory, -#' predict_from, horizon respectively for the dataset (object output of -#' \code{getData()}), the current index, the data depth (in days), the first predicted -#' hour and the last predicted hour. -#' In addition, optional arguments can be passed: +#' Optional arguments: #' \itemize{ -#' \item local : TRUE (default) to constrain neighbors to be "same days within same -#' season" -#' \item simtype : 'endo' for a similarity based on the series only, +#' \item local: TRUE (default) to constrain neighbors to be "same days in same season" +#' \item simtype: 'endo' for a similarity based on the series only, #' 'exo' for a similarity based on exogenous variables only, #' 'mix' for the product of 'endo' and 'exo', #' 'none' (default) to apply a simple average: no computed weights -#' \item window : A window for similarities computations; override cross-validation +#' \item window: A window for similarities computations; override cross-validation #' window estimation. #' } #' The method is summarized as follows: #' \enumerate{ -#' \item Determine N (=20) recent days without missing values, and followed by a -#' tomorrow also without missing values. +#' \item Determine N (=20) recent days without missing values, and preceded by a +#' curve also without missing values. #' \item Optimize the window parameters (if relevant) on the N chosen days. #' \item Considering the optimized window, compute the neighbors (with locality #' constraint or not), compute their similarities -- using a gaussian kernel if @@ -132,8 +128,6 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", # limit=Inf to not censor any day (TODO: finite limit? 60?) tdays = getSimilarDaysIndices(today, data, limit=Inf, same_season=TRUE, days_in=tdays_cut, operational=opera) -# if (length(tdays) <= 1) -# return (NA) # TODO: 10 == magic number tdays = .getConstrainedNeighbs(today, data, tdays, min_neighbs=10) if (length(tdays) == 1) @@ -146,18 +140,12 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", } return ( data$getSerie(tdays[1])[predict_from:horizon] ) } - max_neighbs = 10 #TODO: 12 = arbitrary number + max_neighbs = 10 #TODO: 10 or 12 or... ? if (length(tdays) > max_neighbs) { distances2 <- .computeDistsEndo(data, today, tdays, predict_from) ordering <- order(distances2) tdays <- tdays[ ordering[1:max_neighbs] ] - - print("VVVVV") - print(sort(distances2)[1:max_neighbs]) - print(integerIndexToDate(today,data)) - print(lapply(tdays,function(i) integerIndexToDate(i,data))) - print(rbind(data$getSeries(tdays-1), data$getSeries(tdays))) } } else @@ -236,11 +224,7 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", .getConstrainedNeighbs = function(today, data, tdays, min_neighbs=10) { levelToday = data$getLevelHat(today) -# levelYersteday = data$getLevel(today-1) - distances = sapply(tdays, function(i) { -# sqrt((data$getLevel(i-1)-levelYersteday)^2 + (data$getLevel(i)-levelToday)^2) - abs(data$getLevel(i)-levelToday) - }) + distances = sapply( tdays, function(i) abs(data$getLevel(i) - levelToday) ) #TODO: 1, +1, +3 : magic numbers dist_thresh = 1 min_neighbs = min(min_neighbs,length(tdays)) @@ -252,14 +236,7 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", break dist_thresh = dist_thresh + ifelse(dist_thresh>1,3,1) } - tdays = tdays[same_pollution] -# max_neighbs = 12 -# if (nb_neighbs > max_neighbs) -# { -# # Keep only max_neighbs closest neighbors -# tdays = tdays[ order(distances[same_pollution])[1:max_neighbs] ] -# } - tdays + tdays[same_pollution] } # compute similarities @@ -287,8 +264,7 @@ NeighborsForecaster = R6::R6Class("NeighborsForecaster", sapply(tdays, function(i) { delta = lastSerie - c(data$getSerie(i-1), data$getSerie(i)[if (predict_from>=2) 1:(predict_from-1) else c()]) -# sqrt(mean(delta^2)) - sqrt(sum(delta^2)) + sqrt(mean(delta^2)) }) }